In California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the East Bay with a strong history of lopsided partisan margins, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability following incumbent Barbara Lee's retirement and primary winner Lateefah Simon's commanding general election performance. With over 98% of ballots counted as of mid-November, Simon leads Republican Stephen Slauson by roughly 84%-16%, prompting media outlets to call the race on election night amid high turnout in urban Democratic precincts like Oakland and Berkeley. This positioning reflects the district's partisan leanings and lack of competitive polling pre-election. Scenarios that could challenge resolution include a narrow final tally triggering automatic recount, unforeseen legal disputes over absentee ballots, or certification delays by state officials in December, though these remain low-probability given the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$11,650 Vol.
$11,650 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$11,650 Vol.
$11,650 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,825 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$4,825 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the East Bay with a strong history of lopsided partisan margins, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability following incumbent Barbara Lee's retirement and primary winner Lateefah Simon's commanding general election performance. With over 98% of ballots counted as of mid-November, Simon leads Republican Stephen Slauson by roughly 84%-16%, prompting media outlets to call the race on election night amid high turnout in urban Democratic precincts like Oakland and Berkeley. This positioning reflects the district's partisan leanings and lack of competitive polling pre-election. Scenarios that could challenge resolution include a narrow final tally triggering automatic recount, unforeseen legal disputes over absentee ballots, or certification delays by state officials in December, though these remain low-probability given the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,650End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the East Bay with a strong history of lopsided partisan margins, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability following incumbent Barbara Lee's retirement and primary winner Lateefah Simon's commanding general election performance. With over 98% of ballots counted as of mid-November, Simon leads Republican Stephen Slauson by roughly 84%-16%, prompting media outlets to call the race on election night amid high turnout in urban Democratic precincts like Oakland and Berkeley. This positioning reflects the district's partisan leanings and lack of competitive polling pre-election. Scenarios that could challenge resolution include a narrow final tally triggering automatic recount, unforeseen legal disputes over absentee ballots, or certification delays by state officials in December, though these remain low-probability given the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,650End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the East Bay with a strong history of lopsided partisan margins, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability following incumbent Barbara Lee's retirement and primary winner Lateefah Simon's commanding general election performance. With over 98% of ballots counted as of mid-November, Simon leads Republican Stephen Slauson by roughly 84%-16%, prompting media outlets to call the race on election night amid high turnout in urban Democratic precincts like Oakland and Berkeley. This positioning reflects the district's partisan leanings and lack of competitive polling pre-election. Scenarios that could challenge resolution include a narrow final tally triggering automatic recount, unforeseen legal disputes over absentee ballots, or certification delays by state officials in December, though these remain low-probability given the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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