Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent lead in recent polls around 22% amid a fragmented field. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads the CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from steady voter support despite no major shifts in the past 30 days; the latest INSA poll from February 24 showed CDU at 22%, ahead of AfD and Linke both at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne trailing at 15-16%. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, bolstered by recent state election victories in Rhineland-Palatinate, underpins this positioning, while smaller parties like FDP and BSW poll below 5%. Upcoming campaign dynamics and potential coalition negotiations could influence the closely contested race for plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.3%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,489,443 Vol.
$1,489,443 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
10%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.3%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,489,443 Vol.
$1,489,443 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,521 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,147,333 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,268 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,317 Vol.
10%
BSW
$14,663 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,824 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent lead in recent polls around 22% amid a fragmented field. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads the CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from steady voter support despite no major shifts in the past 30 days; the latest INSA poll from February 24 showed CDU at 22%, ahead of AfD and Linke both at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne trailing at 15-16%. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, bolstered by recent state election victories in Rhineland-Palatinate, underpins this positioning, while smaller parties like FDP and BSW poll below 5%. Upcoming campaign dynamics and potential coalition negotiations could influence the closely contested race for plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,489,443End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent lead in recent polls around 22% amid a fragmented field. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads the CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from steady voter support despite no major shifts in the past 30 days; the latest INSA poll from February 24 showed CDU at 22%, ahead of AfD and Linke both at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne trailing at 15-16%. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, bolstered by recent state election victories in Rhineland-Palatinate, underpins this positioning, while smaller parties like FDP and BSW poll below 5%. Upcoming campaign dynamics and potential coalition negotiations could influence the closely contested race for plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,489,443End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent lead in recent polls around 22% amid a fragmented field. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner leads the CDU-SPD grand coalition, benefiting from steady voter support despite no major shifts in the past 30 days; the latest INSA poll from February 24 showed CDU at 22%, ahead of AfD and Linke both at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne trailing at 15-16%. National CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz, bolstered by recent state election victories in Rhineland-Palatinate, underpins this positioning, while smaller parties like FDP and BSW poll below 5%. Upcoming campaign dynamics and potential coalition negotiations could influence the closely contested race for plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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