CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 11.8%
Grüne 8.9%
$1,261,020 Vol.
$1,261,020 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 11.8%
Grüne 8.9%
$1,261,020 Vol.
$1,261,020 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,473 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$919,706 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,159 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,674 Vol.
9%
BSW
$9,837 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,776 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,261,020End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,261,020End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...CDU traders' consensus at 54.5% implied probability stems from its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls—around 30-33% in October INSA and Allensbach surveys—bolstered by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's strong approval amid Berlin's budget crises and public dissatisfaction with coalition governance. A constitutional court ruling last month invalidated key parts of the 2025 state budget, highlighting fiscal mismanagement under the CDU-SPD coalition and eroding support for SPD (polling 15-16%) and Grüne (12-14%). Linke at 13.5% reflects modest gains from left-wing voters disillusioned with the establishment, while AfD holds steady at 12% on migration concerns, though proportional representation and the 5% threshold favor CDU's path to plurality victory in the autumn 2026 Landtagswahl.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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