Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent 22% polling lead in recent surveys like INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February), ahead of a fragmented field where Die Linke polls at 15-17%, AfD at 16-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This positioning stems from the incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU victory in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election on March 22 amid dissatisfaction with left-leaning governance. Proportional representation and 5% threshold project CDU at 34 seats versus 23-25 for rivals, though tight margins and six months to campaign leave room for shifts from endorsements or scandals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.0%
Grüne 10.5%
$1,452,572 Vol.
$1,452,572 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
11%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.0%
Grüne 10.5%
$1,452,572 Vol.
$1,452,572 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,519 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,106,861 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,268 Vol.
11%
SPD
$281,317 Vol.
10%
BSW
$14,663 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,824 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent 22% polling lead in recent surveys like INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February), ahead of a fragmented field where Die Linke polls at 15-17%, AfD at 16-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This positioning stems from the incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU victory in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election on March 22 amid dissatisfaction with left-leaning governance. Proportional representation and 5% threshold project CDU at 34 seats versus 23-25 for rivals, though tight margins and six months to campaign leave room for shifts from endorsements or scandals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,452,572End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent 22% polling lead in recent surveys like INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February), ahead of a fragmented field where Die Linke polls at 15-17%, AfD at 16-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This positioning stems from the incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU victory in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election on March 22 amid dissatisfaction with left-leaning governance. Proportional representation and 5% threshold project CDU at 34 seats versus 23-25 for rivals, though tight margins and six months to campaign leave room for shifts from endorsements or scandals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,452,572End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent 22% polling lead in recent surveys like INSA (February 24) and Civey (late February), ahead of a fragmented field where Die Linke polls at 15-17%, AfD at 16-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This positioning stems from the incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU victory in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election on March 22 amid dissatisfaction with left-leaning governance. Proportional representation and 5% threshold project CDU at 34 seats versus 23-25 for rivals, though tight margins and six months to campaign leave room for shifts from endorsements or scandals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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