Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 11.4%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,505,862 Vol.
$1,505,862 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
11%
Grüne
10%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 11.4%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,505,862 Vol.
$1,505,862 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,525 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,161,267 Vol.
11%
Grüne
$22,268 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,317 Vol.
10%
BSW
$14,663 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,824 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,505,862End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,505,862End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 54.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Berlin's September 20 state election, driven by consistent polling leads around 22% since the party's 2023 repeat victory and current incumbency under Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition. Recent polls, including INSA's February survey, show a fragmented opposition—AfD at 17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%, Die Linke at 15%—reflecting no clear challenger amid Berlin's mixed-member proportional system requiring 66 seats for a majority. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU ousting SPD after 35 years in Rhineland-Palatinate last week bolsters the lead, though coalition negotiations loom post-election as projections indicate CDU topping at 34 seats without a partner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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