Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable polling lead at 22-23% in the latest INSA (February 2026) and Civey (late February) surveys amid a fragmented field where AfD trails at 16-17%, Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%. No major developments have shifted standings in the past 30 days, with CDU benefiting from incumbency in the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Governing Mayor Kai Wegener and national momentum for Chancellor Merz's CDU. Multi-party competition under proportional representation ensures the modest lead translates to high plurality odds, though coalition negotiations would follow for majority government formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.4%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,323,141 Vol.
$1,323,141 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.4%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,323,141 Vol.
$1,323,141 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,473 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$990,527 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,189 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,685 Vol.
9%
BSW
$12,647 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,796 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable polling lead at 22-23% in the latest INSA (February 2026) and Civey (late February) surveys amid a fragmented field where AfD trails at 16-17%, Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%. No major developments have shifted standings in the past 30 days, with CDU benefiting from incumbency in the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Governing Mayor Kai Wegener and national momentum for Chancellor Merz's CDU. Multi-party competition under proportional representation ensures the modest lead translates to high plurality odds, though coalition negotiations would follow for majority government formation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,323,141End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable polling lead at 22-23% in the latest INSA (February 2026) and Civey (late February) surveys amid a fragmented field where AfD trails at 16-17%, Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%. No major developments have shifted standings in the past 30 days, with CDU benefiting from incumbency in the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Governing Mayor Kai Wegener and national momentum for Chancellor Merz's CDU. Multi-party competition under proportional representation ensures the modest lead translates to high plurality odds, though coalition negotiations would follow for majority government formation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,323,141End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable polling lead at 22-23% in the latest INSA (February 2026) and Civey (late February) surveys amid a fragmented field where AfD trails at 16-17%, Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne at 15-16%. No major developments have shifted standings in the past 30 days, with CDU benefiting from incumbency in the current CDU-SPD coalition government under Governing Mayor Kai Wegener and national momentum for Chancellor Merz's CDU. Multi-party competition under proportional representation ensures the modest lead translates to high plurality odds, though coalition negotiations would follow for majority government formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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