Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at 22-23% in the latest February surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap—well ahead of a tight race among AfD (16-17%), Linke (15-17%), SPD (15-16%), and Grüne (15%). Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition governs but polls short of a majority, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. Recent SPD infighting, including a March 28 physical altercation in the Berlin-Mitte district over candidate slates, underscores opposition disarray, while no coalition partner emerges clearly for challengers. Fragmentation favors CDU's plurality path, though turnout in this proportional representation system and undecided voters (7-10%) could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,547,055 Vol.
$1,547,055 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
10%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.1%
Grüne 10.4%
$1,547,055 Vol.
$1,547,055 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,527 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,850 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,199,549 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,277 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,327 Vol.
10%
BSW
$14,757 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,024 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,827 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at 22-23% in the latest February surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap—well ahead of a tight race among AfD (16-17%), Linke (15-17%), SPD (15-16%), and Grüne (15%). Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition governs but polls short of a majority, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. Recent SPD infighting, including a March 28 physical altercation in the Berlin-Mitte district over candidate slates, underscores opposition disarray, while no coalition partner emerges clearly for challengers. Fragmentation favors CDU's plurality path, though turnout in this proportional representation system and undecided voters (7-10%) could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,547,055End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at 22-23% in the latest February surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap—well ahead of a tight race among AfD (16-17%), Linke (15-17%), SPD (15-16%), and Grüne (15%). Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition governs but polls short of a majority, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. Recent SPD infighting, including a March 28 physical altercation in the Berlin-Mitte district over candidate slates, underscores opposition disarray, while no coalition partner emerges clearly for challengers. Fragmentation favors CDU's plurality path, though turnout in this proportional representation system and undecided voters (7-10%) could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,547,055End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at 22-23% in the latest February surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap—well ahead of a tight race among AfD (16-17%), Linke (15-17%), SPD (15-16%), and Grüne (15%). Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition governs but polls short of a majority, bolstered nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. Recent SPD infighting, including a March 28 physical altercation in the Berlin-Mitte district over candidate slates, underscores opposition disarray, while no coalition partner emerges clearly for challengers. Fragmentation favors CDU's plurality path, though turnout in this proportional representation system and undecided voters (7-10%) could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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