Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) victory margin exceeding 9% in the next parliamentary election, pricing it at near-certainty amid the post-Sheikh Hasina landscape. Hasina's August 2024 resignation following mass protests elevated BNP's popularity, bolstered by its boycott of the disputed January vote and calls for reforms under interim leader Muhammad Yunus. Recent surveys indicate BNP commanding 40-50% support, far ahead of fragmented rivals like the Awami League remnants or Jamaat-e-Islami. This commanding position stems from anti-incumbency momentum and BNP's organizational edge. Realistic challenges include election delays beyond late 2025, coalition formations diluting BNP's lead, or unrest disrupting polls, though traders dismiss these as low-probability given current stability signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBangladesh Parliamentary Election Margin of Victory
Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Margin of Victory
BNP 9%+ 100.0%
BNP 6–9% <1%
BNP 3–6% <1%
BNP <3% <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Feb 12, 2026
BNP 9%+
Yes
BNP 6–9%
No
BNP 3–6%
No
BNP <3%
No
BJI <3%
No
BJI 3–6%
No
BJI 6%+
No
Other
No
BNP 9%+ 100.0%
BNP 6–9% <1%
BNP 3–6% <1%
BNP <3% <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Feb 12, 2026
BNP 9%+
$0 Vol.
Yes
BNP 6–9%
$0 Vol.
No
BNP 3–6%
$0 Vol.
No
BNP <3%
$0 Vol.
No
BJI <3%
$0 Vol.
No
BJI 3–6%
$0 Vol.
No
BJI 6%+
$0 Vol.
No
Other
$0 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) victory margin exceeding 9% in the next parliamentary election, pricing it at near-certainty amid the post-Sheikh Hasina landscape. Hasina's August 2024 resignation following mass protests elevated BNP's popularity, bolstered by its boycott of the disputed January vote and calls for reforms under interim leader Muhammad Yunus. Recent surveys indicate BNP commanding 40-50% support, far ahead of fragmented rivals like the Awami League remnants or Jamaat-e-Islami. This commanding position stems from anti-incumbency momentum and BNP's organizational edge. Realistic challenges include election delays beyond late 2025, coalition formations diluting BNP's lead, or unrest disrupting polls, though traders dismiss these as low-probability given current stability signals.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Feb 12, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) victory margin exceeding 9% in the next parliamentary election, pricing it at near-certainty amid the post-Sheikh Hasina landscape. Hasina's August 2024 resignation following mass protests elevated BNP's popularity, bolstered by its boycott of the disputed January vote and calls for reforms under interim leader Muhammad Yunus. Recent surveys indicate BNP commanding 40-50% support, far ahead of fragmented rivals like the Awami League remnants or Jamaat-e-Islami. This commanding position stems from anti-incumbency momentum and BNP's organizational edge. Realistic challenges include election delays beyond late 2025, coalition formations diluting BNP's lead, or unrest disrupting polls, though traders dismiss these as low-probability given current stability signals.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0End Date
Feb 12, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) victory margin exceeding 9% in the next parliamentary election, pricing it at near-certainty amid the post-Sheikh Hasina landscape. Hasina's August 2024 resignation following mass protests elevated BNP's popularity, bolstered by its boycott of the disputed January vote and calls for reforms under interim leader Muhammad Yunus. Recent surveys indicate BNP commanding 40-50% support, far ahead of fragmented rivals like the Awami League remnants or Jamaat-e-Islami. This commanding position stems from anti-incumbency momentum and BNP's organizational edge. Realistic challenges include election delays beyond late 2025, coalition formations diluting BNP's lead, or unrest disrupting polls, though traders dismiss these as low-probability given current stability signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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