Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

James Richardson 45%

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Polymarket
NEW

James Richardson 45%

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Polymarket
NEW

James Richardson

$0 Vol.

45%

Austin Sidwell

$0 Vol.

42%

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

41%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

41%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

41%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

41%

John Mills

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a fragmented field with James Richardson edging Austin Sidwell and incumbent Jerry Carl amid clustered probabilities around 41-46%, signaling expectations of a runoff if no candidate clears 50%. Recent FEC filings reveal Richardson's fundraising dominance, bolstering his slight lead, while Carl leans on incumbency advantages and a January Trump endorsement; Sidwell draws Club for Growth backing targeting Carl's perceived vulnerabilities on spending. Absent fresh polling since early 2024, the race remains tight due to vote-splitting among seven viable contenders, with turnout in Mobile County and endorsements potentially decisive before early voting ramps up.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$0
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a fragmented field with James Richardson edging Austin Sidwell and incumbent Jerry Carl amid clustered probabilities around 41-46%, signaling expectations of a runoff if no candidate clears 50%. Recent FEC filings reveal Richardson's fundraising dominance, bolstering his slight lead, while Carl leans on incumbency advantages and a January Trump endorsement; Sidwell draws Club for Growth backing targeting Carl's perceived vulnerabilities on spending. Absent fresh polling since early 2024, the race remains tight due to vote-splitting among seven viable contenders, with turnout in Mobile County and endorsements potentially decisive before early voting ramps up.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a fragmented field with James Richardson edging Austin Sidwell and incumbent Jerry Carl amid clustered probabilities around 41-46%, signaling expectations of a runoff if no candidate clears 50%. Recent FEC filings reveal Richardson's fundraising dominance, bolstering his slight lead, while Carl leans on incumbency advantages and a January Trump endorsement; Sidwell draws Club for Growth backing targeting Carl's perceived vulnerabilities on spending. Absent fresh polling since early 2024, the race remains tight due to vote-splitting among seven viable contenders, with turnout in Mobile County and endorsements potentially decisive before early voting ramps up.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Richardson" at 46%, followed by "Austin Sidwell" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "James Richardson" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Austin Sidwell" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.