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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.0%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$472,195,994 Vol.

JD Vance 18.0%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$472,195,994 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,160,399 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,733,254 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,314,775 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,415,368 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,983,560 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,506,142 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,352,491 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,317,185 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,449,543 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,030,815 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,518 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,818,597 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,504,817 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,617,579 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,768,041 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,007,094 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,102,701 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,270,544 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,687,474 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,365,665 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,975,635 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,568,400 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,383,141 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,033,015 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,649,784 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,307,853 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,432,395 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,777,450 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,176,742 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,134,103 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,961,351 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,305,069 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,055,618 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,942,615 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,092,107 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,583,024 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold narrow leads at trader consensus probabilities of 17.8% and 17.1%, respectively, in this early 2028 presidential winner market, reflecting uncertainty amid the Trump administration's handling of the escalating Iran conflict and recent government shutdown. Vance's edge stems from winning the CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination last week and his vice presidential incumbency advantage, though odds have slipped to an all-time low amid political risks from tariffs, ceasefire delays, and donor preferences reportedly favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (10.3%) over him in Trump inner-circle discussions. Newsom leads Democratic nominee markets despite a -18% national favorability rating in NBC polling, buoyed by California's donor base in a fragmented field. The 2026 midterms, potential primary announcements, and Iran war resolutions could widen gaps in this wide-open race.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold narrow leads at trader consensus probabilities of 17.8% and 17.1%, respectively, in this early 2028 presidential winner market, reflecting uncertainty amid the Trump administration's handling of the escalating Iran conflict and recent government shutdown. Vance's edge stems from winning the CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination last week and his vice presidential incumbency advantage, though odds have slipped to an all-time low amid political risks from tariffs, ceasefire delays, and donor preferences reportedly favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (10.3%) over him in Trump inner-circle discussions. Newsom leads Democratic nominee markets despite a -18% national favorability rating in NBC polling, buoyed by California's donor base in a fragmented field. The 2026 midterms, potential primary announcements, and Iran war resolutions could widen gaps in this wide-open race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold narrow leads at trader consensus probabilities of 17.8% and 17.1%, respectively, in this early 2028 presidential winner market, reflecting uncertainty amid the Trump administration's handling of the escalating Iran conflict and recent government shutdown. Vance's edge stems from winning the CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination last week and his vice presidential incumbency advantage, though odds have slipped to an all-time low amid political risks from tariffs, ceasefire delays, and donor preferences reportedly favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (10.3%) over him in Trump inner-circle discussions. Newsom leads Democratic nominee markets despite a -18% national favorability rating in NBC polling, buoyed by California's donor base in a fragmented field. The 2026 midterms, potential primary announcements, and Iran war resolutions could widen gaps in this wide-open race.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom hold narrow leads at trader consensus probabilities of 17.8% and 17.1%, respectively, in this early 2028 presidential winner market, reflecting uncertainty amid the Trump administration's handling of the escalating Iran conflict and recent government shutdown. Vance's edge stems from winning the CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination last week and his vice presidential incumbency advantage, though odds have slipped to an all-time low amid political risks from tariffs, ceasefire delays, and donor preferences reportedly favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (10.3%) over him in Trump inner-circle discussions. Newsom leads Democratic nominee markets despite a -18% national favorability rating in NBC polling, buoyed by California's donor base in a fragmented field. The 2026 midterms, potential primary announcements, and Iran war resolutions could widen gaps in this wide-open race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $472.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.