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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.3%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,763,647 Vol.

JD Vance 17.3%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,763,647 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,145,835 Vol.

17%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,724,281 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,306,354 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,411,627 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,958,919 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,493,774 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,344,227 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,316,424 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,441,619 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,454 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,012,263 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,807,515 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,492,773 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,758,008 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,610,101 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,998,433 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,083,124 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,225,470 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,674,781 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,356,388 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,966,667 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,562,853 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,370,143 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,022,084 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,641,828 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,299,701 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,417,448 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,767,309 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,163,880 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,120,682 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,932,389 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,287,853 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,044,067 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,927,029 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,077,018 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,561,575 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.3%, nearly matched by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting early fragmentation across party lines more than two years before Election Day. Recent CPAC straw polls reaffirmed Vance's dominance in Republican primary preferences at 53%, though Rubio surged to 35% amid growing conservative comfort, while Newsom leads Democratic early surveys like California and New Hampshire matchups over rivals including Kamala Harris. This tightness stems from Trump administration policy outcomes, low candidate favorability baselines, and anticipation of 2026 midterms as pivotal tests for incumbency advantages and path-to-victory in swing states; official announcements, endorsements, or midterm results could widen gaps.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.3%, nearly matched by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting early fragmentation across party lines more than two years before Election Day. Recent CPAC straw polls reaffirmed Vance's dominance in Republican primary preferences at 53%, though Rubio surged to 35% amid growing conservative comfort, while Newsom leads Democratic early surveys like California and New Hampshire matchups over rivals including Kamala Harris. This tightness stems from Trump administration policy outcomes, low candidate favorability baselines, and anticipation of 2026 midterms as pivotal tests for incumbency advantages and path-to-victory in swing states; official announcements, endorsements, or midterm results could widen gaps.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.3%, nearly matched by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting early fragmentation across party lines more than two years before Election Day. Recent CPAC straw polls reaffirmed Vance's dominance in Republican primary preferences at 53%, though Rubio surged to 35% amid growing conservative comfort, while Newsom leads Democratic early surveys like California and New Hampshire matchups over rivals including Kamala Harris. This tightness stems from Trump administration policy outcomes, low candidate favorability baselines, and anticipation of 2026 midterms as pivotal tests for incumbency advantages and path-to-victory in swing states; official announcements, endorsements, or midterm results could widen gaps.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.3%, nearly matched by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.2%, reflecting early fragmentation across party lines more than two years before Election Day. Recent CPAC straw polls reaffirmed Vance's dominance in Republican primary preferences at 53%, though Rubio surged to 35% amid growing conservative comfort, while Newsom leads Democratic early surveys like California and New Hampshire matchups over rivals including Kamala Harris. This tightness stems from Trump administration policy outcomes, low candidate favorability baselines, and anticipation of 2026 midterms as pivotal tests for incumbency advantages and path-to-victory in swing states; official announcements, endorsements, or midterm results could widen gaps.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 17%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.