Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Frank Lucas's dominance in this R+23 district—the 15th most Republican nationwide—where he holds over $800,000 cash on hand. With the April 3 filing deadline imminent, Lucas faces only minor Republican primary challenger Michael DiMario, while Democrat Jules Roberson has negligible fundraising ($511 cash) and independent Rebekah LaVann appears in the general field. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican based on historical margins exceeding 70%. Disruptions would require a GOP primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national midterm wave, all low-probability given the district's entrenched GOP base and low-turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedOK-03 House Election Winner
OK-03 House Election Winner
$32,050 Vol.
$32,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,050 Vol.
$32,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$18,871 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$13,179 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Frank Lucas's dominance in this R+23 district—the 15th most Republican nationwide—where he holds over $800,000 cash on hand. With the April 3 filing deadline imminent, Lucas faces only minor Republican primary challenger Michael DiMario, while Democrat Jules Roberson has negligible fundraising ($511 cash) and independent Rebekah LaVann appears in the general field. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican based on historical margins exceeding 70%. Disruptions would require a GOP primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national midterm wave, all low-probability given the district's entrenched GOP base and low-turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Frank Lucas's dominance in this R+23 district—the 15th most Republican nationwide—where he holds over $800,000 cash on hand. With the April 3 filing deadline imminent, Lucas faces only minor Republican primary challenger Michael DiMario, while Democrat Jules Roberson has negligible fundraising ($511 cash) and independent Rebekah LaVann appears in the general field. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican based on historical margins exceeding 70%. Disruptions would require a GOP primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national midterm wave, all low-probability given the district's entrenched GOP base and low-turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Frank Lucas's dominance in this R+23 district—the 15th most Republican nationwide—where he holds over $800,000 cash on hand. With the April 3 filing deadline imminent, Lucas faces only minor Republican primary challenger Michael DiMario, while Democrat Jules Roberson has negligible fundraising ($511 cash) and independent Rebekah LaVann appears in the general field. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican based on historical margins exceeding 70%. Disruptions would require a GOP primary upset, Lucas scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national midterm wave, all low-probability given the district's entrenched GOP base and low-turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions