Paul Gosar’s commanding position in Arizona’s 9th Congressional District stems from the seat’s strong Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+15 and consistent GOP advantages in voter registration. As the longtime incumbent first elected in 2010, Gosar won an uncontested July 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000. Recent endorsements, including an A rating from the NRA in September 2026, reinforce his alignment with core district priorities on issues like Second Amendment rights and energy policy. Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, is focusing on affordability and rural infrastructure but faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent major late developments such as health events or significant scandals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
94%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
94%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$16,084 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar’s commanding position in Arizona’s 9th Congressional District stems from the seat’s strong Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+15 and consistent GOP advantages in voter registration. As the longtime incumbent first elected in 2010, Gosar won an uncontested July 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000. Recent endorsements, including an A rating from the NRA in September 2026, reinforce his alignment with core district priorities on issues like Second Amendment rights and energy policy. Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, is focusing on affordability and rural infrastructure but faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent major late developments such as health events or significant scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,327End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar’s commanding position in Arizona’s 9th Congressional District stems from the seat’s strong Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+15 and consistent GOP advantages in voter registration. As the longtime incumbent first elected in 2010, Gosar won an uncontested July 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000. Recent endorsements, including an A rating from the NRA in September 2026, reinforce his alignment with core district priorities on issues like Second Amendment rights and energy policy. Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, is focusing on affordability and rural infrastructure but faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent major late developments such as health events or significant scandals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,327End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Paul Gosar’s commanding position in Arizona’s 9th Congressional District stems from the seat’s strong Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+15 and consistent GOP advantages in voter registration. As the longtime incumbent first elected in 2010, Gosar won an uncontested July 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge, with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Democrat Dani Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000. Recent endorsements, including an A rating from the NRA in September 2026, reinforce his alignment with core district priorities on issues like Second Amendment rights and energy policy. Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, is focusing on affordability and rural infrastructure but faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent major late developments such as health events or significant scandals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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