Incumbent Paul Gosar holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to the seat’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+31 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Gosar, first elected in 2010, secured an uncontested Republican primary in July 2026, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. Gosar maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000, bolstered by a recent NRA endorsement. Traders price Gosar’s reelection probability near 94 percent ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited but include unexpected turnout shifts among key voting blocs or late-breaking developments affecting the incumbent’s standing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
94%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,327 Vol.
$26,327 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
94%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$16,084 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Gosar holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to the seat’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+31 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Gosar, first elected in 2010, secured an uncontested Republican primary in July 2026, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. Gosar maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000, bolstered by a recent NRA endorsement. Traders price Gosar’s reelection probability near 94 percent ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited but include unexpected turnout shifts among key voting blocs or late-breaking developments affecting the incumbent’s standing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,327End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Gosar holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to the seat’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+31 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Gosar, first elected in 2010, secured an uncontested Republican primary in July 2026, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. Gosar maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000, bolstered by a recent NRA endorsement. Traders price Gosar’s reelection probability near 94 percent ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited but include unexpected turnout shifts among key voting blocs or late-breaking developments affecting the incumbent’s standing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,327End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Paul Gosar holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 9th congressional district due to the seat’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+31 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Gosar, first elected in 2010, secured an uncontested Republican primary in July 2026, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, advanced unopposed on the Democratic side. Gosar maintains a substantial fundraising edge with over $300,000 cash on hand compared to Sterbinsky’s roughly $25,000, bolstered by a recent NRA endorsement. Traders price Gosar’s reelection probability near 94 percent ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited but include unexpected turnout shifts among key voting blocs or late-breaking developments affecting the incumbent’s standing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions