Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the primary vote, positioning him against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob in the November general election. Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Political Report Solid R rating and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Cole's long tenure since 2002, combined with over $2.5 million in cash on hand, reinforces the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major scandal, unforeseen health development, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome, though structural factors and recent primary results limit realistic pathways for Democratic gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,345 Vol.
$25,345 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,345 Vol.
$25,345 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$14,515 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,830 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the primary vote, positioning him against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob in the November general election. Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Political Report Solid R rating and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Cole's long tenure since 2002, combined with over $2.5 million in cash on hand, reinforces the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major scandal, unforeseen health development, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome, though structural factors and recent primary results limit realistic pathways for Democratic gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,345End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the primary vote, positioning him against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob in the November general election. Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Political Report Solid R rating and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Cole's long tenure since 2002, combined with over $2.5 million in cash on hand, reinforces the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major scandal, unforeseen health development, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome, though structural factors and recent primary results limit realistic pathways for Democratic gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,345End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the primary vote, positioning him against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob in the November general election. Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Political Report Solid R rating and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Cole's long tenure since 2002, combined with over $2.5 million in cash on hand, reinforces the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. A major scandal, unforeseen health development, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome, though structural factors and recent primary results limit realistic pathways for Democratic gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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