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Elections·Nov 4 Elections

OK-04 House Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Nov 4 Elections

OK-04 House Election Winner

$11,659 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,659 Vol.

Republican Party

$11,659 Vol.

94%

Democratic Party

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,659
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.

Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OK-04 House Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Republican Party" at 94%, followed by "Democratic Party" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OK-04 House Election Winner" has generated $11.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OK-04 House Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OK-04 House Election Winner" is "Republican Party" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Democratic Party" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OK-04 House Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.