Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey's 2nd congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, including a 13-point Trump margin in 2024 and Van Drew's own 17-point reelection that year. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus favoring his victory. Democrats added the race to their target list on October 2 after Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock won a June primary, prompting national party resources and signaling hopes tied to local economic pressures and broader midterm dynamics. An internal Democratic poll showed Van Drew ahead by nine points, and with mail voting underway ahead of the November 3 election, the implied probability reflects structural advantages for the incumbent despite the recent targeting.