Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 2nd congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, including Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024 and the seat’s history of supporting GOP candidates. Van Drew’s incumbency, primary win without opposition, and ongoing campaign ads targeting opponent Zack Mullock further bolster trader expectations for his reelection on November 3. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s recent addition of the district to its “Districts in Play” list has highlighted Mullock’s candidacy as Cape May mayor and increased national attention, though forecasters still rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. A late-October debate and early mail voting add near-term variables, but the district’s underlying partisan dynamics keep Van Drew the clear market leader.