Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the Republican Party to win Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Eli Crane's unopposed Republican primary filing confirmed after the March 23 deadline, bolstering his path in the R+7 partisan voting index district where he secured 54.5% in 2024. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican as of March 27, citing Crane's fundraising edge with $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus Democrat Jonathan Nez's $649,000. Nez, former Navajo Nation president facing Eric Descheenie in the July 21 Democratic primary, has intensified criticism of Crane's voting record on tribal issues in recent days, backed by DCCC's Red to Blue targeting, yet traders weigh incumbency and district fundamentals more heavily amid absent early polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
65%
Democratic Party
36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
65%
Democratic Party
$165 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the Republican Party to win Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Eli Crane's unopposed Republican primary filing confirmed after the March 23 deadline, bolstering his path in the R+7 partisan voting index district where he secured 54.5% in 2024. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican as of March 27, citing Crane's fundraising edge with $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus Democrat Jonathan Nez's $649,000. Nez, former Navajo Nation president facing Eric Descheenie in the July 21 Democratic primary, has intensified criticism of Crane's voting record on tribal issues in recent days, backed by DCCC's Red to Blue targeting, yet traders weigh incumbency and district fundamentals more heavily amid absent early polls.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$165End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the Republican Party to win Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Eli Crane's unopposed Republican primary filing confirmed after the March 23 deadline, bolstering his path in the R+7 partisan voting index district where he secured 54.5% in 2024. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican as of March 27, citing Crane's fundraising edge with $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus Democrat Jonathan Nez's $649,000. Nez, former Navajo Nation president facing Eric Descheenie in the July 21 Democratic primary, has intensified criticism of Crane's voting record on tribal issues in recent days, backed by DCCC's Red to Blue targeting, yet traders weigh incumbency and district fundamentals more heavily amid absent early polls.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$165End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the Republican Party to win Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Eli Crane's unopposed Republican primary filing confirmed after the March 23 deadline, bolstering his path in the R+7 partisan voting index district where he secured 54.5% in 2024. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican as of March 27, citing Crane's fundraising edge with $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus Democrat Jonathan Nez's $649,000. Nez, former Navajo Nation president facing Eric Descheenie in the July 21 Democratic primary, has intensified criticism of Crane's voting record on tribal issues in recent days, backed by DCCC's Red to Blue targeting, yet traders weigh incumbency and district fundamentals more heavily amid absent early polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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