Recent polling has shifted trader sentiment toward the Democratic nominee in Texas's 15th congressional district, with Bobby Pulido holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in surveys released in May and July 2026. The district, which favored Republicans in the prior cycle, shows competitiveness driven by Pulido's local name recognition and fundraising, alongside national midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Cook Political Report and other forecasters continue to rate the seat as leaning Republican, citing its underlying partisan lean, yet the most recent head-to-head polling and prediction market pricing reflect heightened uncertainty around turnout among key voting blocs and campaign momentum heading into the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-15 House Election Winner
TX-15 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
34%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,620 Vol.
63%
Republican Party
$3,362 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling has shifted trader sentiment toward the Democratic nominee in Texas's 15th congressional district, with Bobby Pulido holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in surveys released in May and July 2026. The district, which favored Republicans in the prior cycle, shows competitiveness driven by Pulido's local name recognition and fundraising, alongside national midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Cook Political Report and other forecasters continue to rate the seat as leaning Republican, citing its underlying partisan lean, yet the most recent head-to-head polling and prediction market pricing reflect heightened uncertainty around turnout among key voting blocs and campaign momentum heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$5,983End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling has shifted trader sentiment toward the Democratic nominee in Texas's 15th congressional district, with Bobby Pulido holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in surveys released in May and July 2026. The district, which favored Republicans in the prior cycle, shows competitiveness driven by Pulido's local name recognition and fundraising, alongside national midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Cook Political Report and other forecasters continue to rate the seat as leaning Republican, citing its underlying partisan lean, yet the most recent head-to-head polling and prediction market pricing reflect heightened uncertainty around turnout among key voting blocs and campaign momentum heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,983End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling has shifted trader sentiment toward the Democratic nominee in Texas's 15th congressional district, with Bobby Pulido holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in surveys released in May and July 2026. The district, which favored Republicans in the prior cycle, shows competitiveness driven by Pulido's local name recognition and fundraising, alongside national midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Cook Political Report and other forecasters continue to rate the seat as leaning Republican, citing its underlying partisan lean, yet the most recent head-to-head polling and prediction market pricing reflect heightened uncertainty around turnout among key voting blocs and campaign momentum heading into the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions