Recent polling averages place Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz by roughly six points in Texas’s 15th Congressional District, with individual surveys from late September showing margins as wide as 13 points. The shift stems primarily from 2025 redistricting that altered roughly 80 percent of the district’s boundaries, combined with Pulido’s strong name recognition as a Tejano musician in the heavily Hispanic South Texas electorate. Democratic groups have directed substantial advertising and voter outreach emphasizing affordability and local issues, while De La Cruz focuses on her border-security and agriculture record. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report have moved the race to toss-up status, aligning with trader pricing that reflects these polling trends and the district’s changed composition ahead of early voting later this month.