Redistricting approved in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th congressional district boundaries, incorporating large new areas where incumbent Monica De La Cruz has limited prior representation and shifting the seat toward greater competitiveness. Recent polling, including a July survey showing Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido ahead 51-45 percent and an August poll at 50-45 percent, has contributed to trader consensus pricing Pulido as the favorite. Pulido secured the Democratic nomination comfortably in the March primary, leveraging his profile as a Tejano musician with strong regional name recognition. De La Cruz maintains an edge in fundraising and benefits from the district’s recent Republican tilt, though forecasters rate the race as lean or tilt Republican with some viewing it as a toss-up. The November general election outcome will help determine House control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,747 Vol.
$20,747 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bobby Pulido (D)
62%
Monica De La Cruz (R)
39%
$20,747 Vol.
$20,747 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bobby Pulido (D)
$8,725 Vol.
62%
Monica De La Cruz (R)
$12,022 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th congressional district boundaries, incorporating large new areas where incumbent Monica De La Cruz has limited prior representation and shifting the seat toward greater competitiveness. Recent polling, including a July survey showing Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido ahead 51-45 percent and an August poll at 50-45 percent, has contributed to trader consensus pricing Pulido as the favorite. Pulido secured the Democratic nomination comfortably in the March primary, leveraging his profile as a Tejano musician with strong regional name recognition. De La Cruz maintains an edge in fundraising and benefits from the district’s recent Republican tilt, though forecasters rate the race as lean or tilt Republican with some viewing it as a toss-up. The November general election outcome will help determine House control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$20,747End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th congressional district boundaries, incorporating large new areas where incumbent Monica De La Cruz has limited prior representation and shifting the seat toward greater competitiveness. Recent polling, including a July survey showing Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido ahead 51-45 percent and an August poll at 50-45 percent, has contributed to trader consensus pricing Pulido as the favorite. Pulido secured the Democratic nomination comfortably in the March primary, leveraging his profile as a Tejano musician with strong regional name recognition. De La Cruz maintains an edge in fundraising and benefits from the district’s recent Republican tilt, though forecasters rate the race as lean or tilt Republican with some viewing it as a toss-up. The November general election outcome will help determine House control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,747End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting approved in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th congressional district boundaries, incorporating large new areas where incumbent Monica De La Cruz has limited prior representation and shifting the seat toward greater competitiveness. Recent polling, including a July survey showing Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido ahead 51-45 percent and an August poll at 50-45 percent, has contributed to trader consensus pricing Pulido as the favorite. Pulido secured the Democratic nomination comfortably in the March primary, leveraging his profile as a Tejano musician with strong regional name recognition. De La Cruz maintains an edge in fundraising and benefits from the district’s recent Republican tilt, though forecasters rate the race as lean or tilt Republican with some viewing it as a toss-up. The November general election outcome will help determine House control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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