Recent polling in Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke holding narrow leads over Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden in this rematch of the 2024 race, where Van Orden prevailed by roughly two points. Multiple surveys from mid-2026, including those sponsored by Democratic groups, place Cooke at 50% to Van Orden’s 46%, while broader polling averages remain within a point or two either way. The district’s even partisan lean, Cooke’s primary victory and fundraising edge, and mixed favorability ratings for the incumbent have supported trader consensus around an elevated probability for the Democrat ahead of the November 3 general election. Race ratings from forecasters range from toss-up to lean Democratic.