Rebecca Cooke holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 3rd congressional district race according to trader consensus, reflecting her consistent polling leads in recent surveys and strong fundraising that outpaced the incumbent. Van Orden won the seat by under three points in 2024, but Democratic-leaning polls from mid-2026 show Cooke ahead by four points in head-to-head matchups, aided by her primary victory and national party support in a midterm cycle where the opposition party typically gains ground. Key factors include voter concerns over local issues such as data center costs, where Van Orden backed ratepayer protections, alongside lower favorability for both the incumbent and former President Trump in the district. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with the seat rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
$4,465 Vol.
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
$2,073 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rebecca Cooke holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 3rd congressional district race according to trader consensus, reflecting her consistent polling leads in recent surveys and strong fundraising that outpaced the incumbent. Van Orden won the seat by under three points in 2024, but Democratic-leaning polls from mid-2026 show Cooke ahead by four points in head-to-head matchups, aided by her primary victory and national party support in a midterm cycle where the opposition party typically gains ground. Key factors include voter concerns over local issues such as data center costs, where Van Orden backed ratepayer protections, alongside lower favorability for both the incumbent and former President Trump in the district. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with the seat rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$6,538End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rebecca Cooke holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 3rd congressional district race according to trader consensus, reflecting her consistent polling leads in recent surveys and strong fundraising that outpaced the incumbent. Van Orden won the seat by under three points in 2024, but Democratic-leaning polls from mid-2026 show Cooke ahead by four points in head-to-head matchups, aided by her primary victory and national party support in a midterm cycle where the opposition party typically gains ground. Key factors include voter concerns over local issues such as data center costs, where Van Orden backed ratepayer protections, alongside lower favorability for both the incumbent and former President Trump in the district. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with the seat rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,538End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rebecca Cooke holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 3rd congressional district race according to trader consensus, reflecting her consistent polling leads in recent surveys and strong fundraising that outpaced the incumbent. Van Orden won the seat by under three points in 2024, but Democratic-leaning polls from mid-2026 show Cooke ahead by four points in head-to-head matchups, aided by her primary victory and national party support in a midterm cycle where the opposition party typically gains ground. Key factors include voter concerns over local issues such as data center costs, where Van Orden backed ratepayer protections, alongside lower favorability for both the incumbent and former President Trump in the district. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with the seat rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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