Russ Fulcher holds a commanding 95.2% implied probability in the Idaho 1st District House race due to the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his strong primary performance securing 78% of the GOP vote in May 2026, and his prior general-election margins near 71%. The solidly Republican electorate, covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, has delivered reliable support for the incumbent across multiple cycles. Kaylee Peterson’s Democratic primary win and repeated candidacies have not narrowed the structural gap, even with an independent and Constitution Party candidate on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Democratic turnout among unaffiliated voters or major late developments could still shift outcomes in a low-probability environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
5%
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
$32,566 Vol.
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
$15,643 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher holds a commanding 95.2% implied probability in the Idaho 1st District House race due to the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his strong primary performance securing 78% of the GOP vote in May 2026, and his prior general-election margins near 71%. The solidly Republican electorate, covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, has delivered reliable support for the incumbent across multiple cycles. Kaylee Peterson’s Democratic primary win and repeated candidacies have not narrowed the structural gap, even with an independent and Constitution Party candidate on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Democratic turnout among unaffiliated voters or major late developments could still shift outcomes in a low-probability environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher holds a commanding 95.2% implied probability in the Idaho 1st District House race due to the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his strong primary performance securing 78% of the GOP vote in May 2026, and his prior general-election margins near 71%. The solidly Republican electorate, covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, has delivered reliable support for the incumbent across multiple cycles. Kaylee Peterson’s Democratic primary win and repeated candidacies have not narrowed the structural gap, even with an independent and Constitution Party candidate on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Democratic turnout among unaffiliated voters or major late developments could still shift outcomes in a low-probability environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Russ Fulcher holds a commanding 95.2% implied probability in the Idaho 1st District House race due to the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his strong primary performance securing 78% of the GOP vote in May 2026, and his prior general-election margins near 71%. The solidly Republican electorate, covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, has delivered reliable support for the incumbent across multiple cycles. Kaylee Peterson’s Democratic primary win and repeated candidacies have not narrowed the structural gap, even with an independent and Constitution Party candidate on the November 3 ballot. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Democratic turnout among unaffiliated voters or major late developments could still shift outcomes in a low-probability environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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