Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s deep Republican lean, where the incumbent secured 71% in 2024 and benefits from consistent primary strength and high name recognition. After winning his May 2026 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, Fulcher faces Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who prevailed in her primary but trails significantly in July polling at around 48% to 27%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive pressure. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as turnout surges among independents, third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen national events, though the district’s partisan composition and historical margins set a high bar for any challenger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
5%
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
$32,566 Vol.
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
$15,643 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s deep Republican lean, where the incumbent secured 71% in 2024 and benefits from consistent primary strength and high name recognition. After winning his May 2026 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, Fulcher faces Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who prevailed in her primary but trails significantly in July polling at around 48% to 27%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive pressure. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as turnout surges among independents, third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen national events, though the district’s partisan composition and historical margins set a high bar for any challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s deep Republican lean, where the incumbent secured 71% in 2024 and benefits from consistent primary strength and high name recognition. After winning his May 2026 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, Fulcher faces Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who prevailed in her primary but trails significantly in July polling at around 48% to 27%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive pressure. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as turnout surges among independents, third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen national events, though the district’s partisan composition and historical margins set a high bar for any challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s deep Republican lean, where the incumbent secured 71% in 2024 and benefits from consistent primary strength and high name recognition. After winning his May 2026 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, Fulcher faces Democrat Kaylee Peterson, who prevailed in her primary but trails significantly in July polling at around 48% to 27%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and limited competitive pressure. Potential shifts remain possible through late-cycle developments such as turnout surges among independents, third-party vote splitting, or unforeseen national events, though the district’s partisan composition and historical margins set a high bar for any challenger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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