Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his status as incumbent, and strong primary performance where he secured roughly 78% of the vote in May 2026. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting historical margins exceeding 40 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the Panhandle and western Boise area. July polling showed Fulcher ahead of Democratic nominee Kaylee Peterson by double digits, with an independent candidate drawing modest support. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural factors and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include unusually high Democratic turnout, a national midterm wave, or significant campaign developments before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
5%
$48,209 Vol.
$48,209 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Russ Fulcher (R)
$32,566 Vol.
95%
Kaylee Peterson (D)
$15,643 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his status as incumbent, and strong primary performance where he secured roughly 78% of the vote in May 2026. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting historical margins exceeding 40 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the Panhandle and western Boise area. July polling showed Fulcher ahead of Democratic nominee Kaylee Peterson by double digits, with an independent candidate drawing modest support. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural factors and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include unusually high Democratic turnout, a national midterm wave, or significant campaign developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his status as incumbent, and strong primary performance where he secured roughly 78% of the vote in May 2026. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting historical margins exceeding 40 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the Panhandle and western Boise area. July polling showed Fulcher ahead of Democratic nominee Kaylee Peterson by double digits, with an independent candidate drawing modest support. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural factors and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include unusually high Democratic turnout, a national midterm wave, or significant campaign developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,209End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Russ Fulcher’s commanding position in the Idaho 1st congressional district race stems from the district’s consistent Republican dominance, his status as incumbent, and strong primary performance where he secured roughly 78% of the vote in May 2026. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting historical margins exceeding 40 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the Panhandle and western Boise area. July polling showed Fulcher ahead of Democratic nominee Kaylee Peterson by double digits, with an independent candidate drawing modest support. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural factors and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include unusually high Democratic turnout, a national midterm wave, or significant campaign developments before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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