Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability to win the KS-04 House seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+14) and incumbent Rep. Ron Estes' consistent large-margin victories, including a 30-point win in 2022. With primaries concluded in early August without surprises—Estes easily defeating a token primary challenger and Democrat Elizabeth Erickson securing her nomination—forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican, citing minimal Democratic fundraising and no competitive polling. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 general election, but no recent catalysts such as scandals, endorsements, or shifts in national sentiment have emerged to challenge the status quo in this safe seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$24,855 Vol.
$24,855 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
87%
Partido Demócrata
13%
$24,855 Vol.
$24,855 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$12,848 Vol.
87%
Partido Demócrata
$12,008 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability to win the KS-04 House seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+14) and incumbent Rep. Ron Estes' consistent large-margin victories, including a 30-point win in 2022. With primaries concluded in early August without surprises—Estes easily defeating a token primary challenger and Democrat Elizabeth Erickson securing her nomination—forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican, citing minimal Democratic fundraising and no competitive polling. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 general election, but no recent catalysts such as scandals, endorsements, or shifts in national sentiment have emerged to challenge the status quo in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$24,855Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability to win the KS-04 House seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+14) and incumbent Rep. Ron Estes' consistent large-margin victories, including a 30-point win in 2022. With primaries concluded in early August without surprises—Estes easily defeating a token primary challenger and Democrat Elizabeth Erickson securing her nomination—forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican, citing minimal Democratic fundraising and no competitive polling. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 general election, but no recent catalysts such as scandals, endorsements, or shifts in national sentiment have emerged to challenge the status quo in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$24,855Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87.5% implied probability to win the KS-04 House seat, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+14) and incumbent Rep. Ron Estes' consistent large-margin victories, including a 30-point win in 2022. With primaries concluded in early August without surprises—Estes easily defeating a token primary challenger and Democrat Elizabeth Erickson securing her nomination—forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate the race as Solid Republican, citing minimal Democratic fundraising and no competitive polling. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 general election, but no recent catalysts such as scandals, endorsements, or shifts in national sentiment have emerged to challenge the status quo in this safe seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes