Market icon
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?

Market icon
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?

Grégory Doucet 99.6%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert <1%

Jean-Michel Aulas <1%

Alexandre Dupalais <1%

Polymarket

$2,566,819 Vol.

Grégory Doucet 99.6%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert <1%

Jean-Michel Aulas <1%

Alexandre Dupalais <1%

Polymarket

$2,566,819 Vol.

Grégory Doucet

$403,297 Vol.

100%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert

$1,766,212 Vol.

<1%

Jean-Michel Aulas

$397,310 Vol.

<1%

Alexandre Dupalais

$0 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).Grégory Doucet's commanding 99.7% implied probability in the Lyon mayoral election market reflects trader consensus on the ecologist incumbent's re-election strength ahead of the 2026 municipal vote, bolstered by his solid approval ratings from the 2020 victory and ongoing green policy initiatives in the progressive city. No major developments, such as challenger announcements or polling shifts, have emerged in the past 30 days to disrupt this positioning, with opposition figures like Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction. While late scandals, economic downturns, unified right-wing coalitions, or voter turnout swings in the two-round list system could theoretically challenge him, traders price these risks as negligible absent new catalysts.

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
Volumen
$2,566,819
Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).Grégory Doucet's commanding 99.7% implied probability in the Lyon mayoral election market reflects trader consensus on the ecologist incumbent's re-election strength ahead of the 2026 municipal vote, bolstered by his solid approval ratings from the 2020 victory and ongoing green policy initiatives in the progressive city. No major developments, such as challenger announcements or polling shifts, have emerged in the past 30 days to disrupt this positioning, with opposition figures like Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction. While late scandals, economic downturns, unified right-wing coalitions, or voter turnout swings in the two-round list system could theoretically challenge him, traders price these risks as negligible absent new catalysts.

Grégory Doucet's commanding 99.7% implied probability in the Lyon mayoral election market reflects trader consensus on the ecologist incumbent's re-election strength ahead of the 2026 municipal vote, bolstered by his solid approval ratings from the 2020 victory and ongoing green policy initiatives in the progressive city. No major developments, such as challenger announcements or polling shifts, have emerged in the past 30 days to disrupt this positioning, with opposition figures like Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction. While late scandals, economic downturns, unified right-wing coalitions, or voter turnout swings in the two-round list system could theoretically challenge him, traders price these risks as negligible absent new catalysts.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Grégory Doucet" con 100%, seguido de "Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" ha generado $2.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 15, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" es "Grégory Doucet" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.