Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in the AR-01 race for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean and limited Democratic opposition. The northeastern Arkansas seat, which delivered Crawford roughly 73 percent of the vote in 2024, saw both major-party primaries canceled in March 2026, allowing the incumbent to advance unopposed while Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green became the general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan baseline and historical turnout patterns favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican nominee an implied probability above 90 percent because no major campaign developments, fundraising surges, or national shifts have emerged to alter the longstanding structural advantage. A late scandal, unusually high Democratic mobilization, or a broader midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current evidence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AR-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,115 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$7,571 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in the AR-01 race for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean and limited Democratic opposition. The northeastern Arkansas seat, which delivered Crawford roughly 73 percent of the vote in 2024, saw both major-party primaries canceled in March 2026, allowing the incumbent to advance unopposed while Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green became the general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan baseline and historical turnout patterns favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican nominee an implied probability above 90 percent because no major campaign developments, fundraising surges, or national shifts have emerged to alter the longstanding structural advantage. A late scandal, unusually high Democratic mobilization, or a broader midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$18,687Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in the AR-01 race for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean and limited Democratic opposition. The northeastern Arkansas seat, which delivered Crawford roughly 73 percent of the vote in 2024, saw both major-party primaries canceled in March 2026, allowing the incumbent to advance unopposed while Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green became the general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan baseline and historical turnout patterns favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican nominee an implied probability above 90 percent because no major campaign developments, fundraising surges, or national shifts have emerged to alter the longstanding structural advantage. A late scandal, unusually high Democratic mobilization, or a broader midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$18,687Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in the AR-01 race for the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean and limited Democratic opposition. The northeastern Arkansas seat, which delivered Crawford roughly 73 percent of the vote in 2024, saw both major-party primaries canceled in March 2026, allowing the incumbent to advance unopposed while Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green became the general-election challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican, consistent with the district’s partisan baseline and historical turnout patterns favoring the GOP. Traders assign the Republican nominee an implied probability above 90 percent because no major campaign developments, fundraising surges, or national shifts have emerged to alter the longstanding structural advantage. A late scandal, unusually high Democratic mobilization, or a broader midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current evidence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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