The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, between longtime incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with the race becoming the most expensive U.S. House primary on record through heavy advertising and outside spending. This mobilization produced roughly 105,361 total votes—more than double the 2024 primary figure in the district—aligning with statewide Republican primary turnout near 29 percent of registered voters and pushing the outcome firmly into the 100-110k range. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed results and the absence of major outstanding certification disputes. Late shifts in official tallies from provisional or absentee ballots, or unexpected legal challenges to vote counts, remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the final certified total.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
100-110k 99.8%
80-90k 1.0%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$48,109 Vol.
$48,109 Vol.
<80k
<1%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
<1%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.8%
80-90k 1.0%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$48,109 Vol.
$48,109 Vol.
<80k
<1%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
<1%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, between longtime incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein drove elevated participation, with the race becoming the most expensive U.S. House primary on record through heavy advertising and outside spending. This mobilization produced roughly 105,361 total votes—more than double the 2024 primary figure in the district—aligning with statewide Republican primary turnout near 29 percent of registered voters and pushing the outcome firmly into the 100-110k range. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed results and the absence of major outstanding certification disputes. Late shifts in official tallies from provisional or absentee ballots, or unexpected legal challenges to vote counts, remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the final certified total.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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