The district's strong Republican tilt, reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting that added GOP-leaning suburban and rural areas in the Texoma region and parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and enters the November general election against Democrat Jason Pearce, who prevailed in his own low-turnout primary. Historical voting patterns, including the GOP candidate's 68 percent share in 2024 and Donald Trump's comfortable margin in the district that year, further anchor expectations of a wide margin. With no major scandals, competitive challengers, or late developments altering the landscape as of mid-May, the race remains structurally noncompetitive, though general-election turnout and national midterm dynamics could still influence final results.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
TX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
86%
Partido Demócrata
15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,656 Vol.
86%
Partido Demócrata
$1,842 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican tilt, reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting that added GOP-leaning suburban and rural areas in the Texoma region and parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and enters the November general election against Democrat Jason Pearce, who prevailed in his own low-turnout primary. Historical voting patterns, including the GOP candidate's 68 percent share in 2024 and Donald Trump's comfortable margin in the district that year, further anchor expectations of a wide margin. With no major scandals, competitive challengers, or late developments altering the landscape as of mid-May, the race remains structurally noncompetitive, though general-election turnout and national midterm dynamics could still influence final results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$3,498Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican tilt, reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting that added GOP-leaning suburban and rural areas in the Texoma region and parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and enters the November general election against Democrat Jason Pearce, who prevailed in his own low-turnout primary. Historical voting patterns, including the GOP candidate's 68 percent share in 2024 and Donald Trump's comfortable margin in the district that year, further anchor expectations of a wide margin. With no major scandals, competitive challengers, or late developments altering the landscape as of mid-May, the race remains structurally noncompetitive, though general-election turnout and national midterm dynamics could still influence final results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,498Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Republican tilt, reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting that added GOP-leaning suburban and rural areas in the Texoma region and parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and enters the November general election against Democrat Jason Pearce, who prevailed in his own low-turnout primary. Historical voting patterns, including the GOP candidate's 68 percent share in 2024 and Donald Trump's comfortable margin in the district that year, further anchor expectations of a wide margin. With no major scandals, competitive challengers, or late developments altering the landscape as of mid-May, the race remains structurally noncompetitive, though general-election turnout and national midterm dynamics could still influence final results.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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