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Política·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21

Market icon
Política·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Partido Republicano

$0 Vol.

75%

Partido Demócrata

$3,720 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district with Republican-leaning PVI (R+10), driving trader consensus to 75% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent Siena College polling from early October shows Stefanik ahead 55%-37% against Democratic nominee Blake Gedeon, reflecting her fundraising dominance ($2.5M cash-on-hand vs. Gedeon's under $100K) and Trump endorsement amid national GOP momentum from favorable economic data and border security focus. Gedeon's campaign struggles with low name recognition and limited resources in this rural North Country battleground, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2022. Upcoming early voting and absentee ballots could influence turnout, but structural advantages favor the Republican path to victory.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,720
Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district with Republican-leaning PVI (R+10), driving trader consensus to 75% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent Siena College polling from early October shows Stefanik ahead 55%-37% against Democratic nominee Blake Gedeon, reflecting her fundraising dominance ($2.5M cash-on-hand vs. Gedeon's under $100K) and Trump endorsement amid national GOP momentum from favorable economic data and border security focus. Gedeon's campaign struggles with low name recognition and limited resources in this rural North Country battleground, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2022. Upcoming early voting and absentee ballots could influence turnout, but structural advantages favor the Republican path to victory.

Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik holds a commanding lead in NY-21, a district with Republican-leaning PVI (R+10), driving trader consensus to 75% for the GOP in the November 5 general election. Recent Siena College polling from early October shows Stefanik ahead 55%-37% against Democratic nominee Blake Gedeon, reflecting her fundraising dominance ($2.5M cash-on-hand vs. Gedeon's under $100K) and Trump endorsement amid national GOP momentum from favorable economic data and border security focus. Gedeon's campaign struggles with low name recognition and limited resources in this rural North Country battleground, where Stefanik won by 24 points in 2022. Upcoming early voting and absentee ballots could influence turnout, but structural advantages favor the Republican path to victory.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Partido Republicano" con 75%, seguido de "Partido Demócrata" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 75¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 75% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 28, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21" es "Partido Republicano" con 75%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 75% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Demócrata" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.