Incumbent Republican Jason Smith's strong reelection bid in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+27, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP House winner. Recent filings by the March 31 deadline confirmed Smith facing minor primary challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, while Democrats splintered into four candidates—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—with negligible fundraising. Smith's prior 76% general election margins and $4.7 million cash-on-hand reinforce the lopsided dynamics ahead of the August 4 primaries. Upsets would require a Smith scandal, retirement, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, scenarios with historical barriers in safe districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-08 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-08 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$26,732 Vol.
$26,732 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$26,732 Vol.
$26,732 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$16,578 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$10,155 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jason Smith's strong reelection bid in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+27, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP House winner. Recent filings by the March 31 deadline confirmed Smith facing minor primary challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, while Democrats splintered into four candidates—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—with negligible fundraising. Smith's prior 76% general election margins and $4.7 million cash-on-hand reinforce the lopsided dynamics ahead of the August 4 primaries. Upsets would require a Smith scandal, retirement, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, scenarios with historical barriers in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$26,732Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jason Smith's strong reelection bid in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+27, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP House winner. Recent filings by the March 31 deadline confirmed Smith facing minor primary challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, while Democrats splintered into four candidates—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—with negligible fundraising. Smith's prior 76% general election margins and $4.7 million cash-on-hand reinforce the lopsided dynamics ahead of the August 4 primaries. Upsets would require a Smith scandal, retirement, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, scenarios with historical barriers in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,732Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jason Smith's strong reelection bid in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+27, drives trader consensus to 93.5% for a GOP House winner. Recent filings by the March 31 deadline confirmed Smith facing minor primary challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, while Democrats splintered into four candidates—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—with negligible fundraising. Smith's prior 76% general election margins and $4.7 million cash-on-hand reinforce the lopsided dynamics ahead of the August 4 primaries. Upsets would require a Smith scandal, retirement, or extraordinary national Democratic wave, scenarios with historical barriers in safe districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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