AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election at 41-42 percent, ahead of the CDU by about 15 points, amid federal coalition dissatisfaction and strong eastern support. This positions the party as the clear frontrunner for the most seats in the 83-member parliament but leaves it short of the roughly 50 percent vote share typically required for an absolute majority under proportional representation, especially with Die Linke near 12-13 percent and smaller parties near the 5 percent threshold. Seat projections based on current distributions indicate AfD would likely secure a plurality rather than the 42 seats needed outright. Trader consensus reflects these structural realities three months before the vote, with limited recent developments altering the gap.