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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

$16,288 Vol.

Polymarket

$16,288 Vol.

Partido Republicano

$16,288 Vol.

94%

Partido Demócrata

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Carol Miller's reelection bid in West Virginia's deeply conservative 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the GOP, reflecting the seat's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+24.** Miller, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces a primary challenge on May 12 from far-right contender Derrick Evans—a convicted Jan. 6 participant—but no credible Democratic opponent has emerged despite statewide party efforts to boost filings in February. Recent candidate announcements and closed filing deadlines (late January) underscore the absence of competitive general election dynamics, aligning with historical patterns where GOP nominees dominate by wide margins in this Trump-won battleground. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or legal issues for the Republican nominee, an unexpected high-profile Democratic recruit post-primary, or a national blue wave, though these face steep barriers given the district's electoral math and low Democratic turnout.

**Incumbent Republican Rep. Carol Miller's reelection bid in West Virginia's deeply conservative 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the GOP, reflecting the seat's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+24.** Miller, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces a primary challenge on May 12 from far-right contender Derrick Evans—a convicted Jan. 6 participant—but no credible Democratic opponent has emerged despite statewide party efforts to boost filings in February. Recent candidate announcements and closed filing deadlines (late January) underscore the absence of competitive general election dynamics, aligning with historical patterns where GOP nominees dominate by wide margins in this Trump-won battleground. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or legal issues for the Republican nominee, an unexpected high-profile Democratic recruit post-primary, or a national blue wave, though these face steep barriers given the district's electoral math and low Democratic turnout.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Carol Miller's reelection bid in West Virginia's deeply conservative 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the GOP, reflecting the seat's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+24.** Miller, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces a primary challenge on May 12 from far-right contender Derrick Evans—a convicted Jan. 6 participant—but no credible Democratic opponent has emerged despite statewide party efforts to boost filings in February. Recent candidate announcements and closed filing deadlines (late January) underscore the absence of competitive general election dynamics, aligning with historical patterns where GOP nominees dominate by wide margins in this Trump-won battleground. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or legal issues for the Republican nominee, an unexpected high-profile Democratic recruit post-primary, or a national blue wave, though these face steep barriers given the district's electoral math and low Democratic turnout.

**Incumbent Republican Rep. Carol Miller's reelection bid in West Virginia's deeply conservative 1st Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for the GOP, reflecting the seat's longstanding status as a safe Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+24.** Miller, who cruised to victory in 2024, faces a primary challenge on May 12 from far-right contender Derrick Evans—a convicted Jan. 6 participant—but no credible Democratic opponent has emerged despite statewide party efforts to boost filings in February. Recent candidate announcements and closed filing deadlines (late January) underscore the absence of competitive general election dynamics, aligning with historical patterns where GOP nominees dominate by wide margins in this Trump-won battleground. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal or legal issues for the Republican nominee, an unexpected high-profile Democratic recruit post-primary, or a national blue wave, though these face steep barriers given the district's electoral math and low Democratic turnout.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Partido Republicano" con 94%, seguido de "Partido Demócrata" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 94¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 94% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" ha generado $16.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 28, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es "Partido Republicano" con 94%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 94% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Demócrata" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "WV-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.