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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Partido Demócrata

$0 Vol.

91%

Partido Republicano

$2,118 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong position in this Cook PVI D+12 to D+14 district, where she won 66.5% in 2024 against a Republican opponent. Recent union endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March bolster her reelection bid, alongside a fundraising edge—over $500,000 cash on hand versus under $50,000 for Republican primary entrant Brenton Awa as of late 2025. With Tokuda unopposed in the August 8 Democratic primary and filing deadline June 2, structural incumbency advantages and historical 60-70% Democratic margins underpin the odds. Shifts could arise from a credible GOP recruit, Tokuda scandal, or national midterm wave, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.

Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong position in this Cook PVI D+12 to D+14 district, where she won 66.5% in 2024 against a Republican opponent. Recent union endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March bolster her reelection bid, alongside a fundraising edge—over $500,000 cash on hand versus under $50,000 for Republican primary entrant Brenton Awa as of late 2025. With Tokuda unopposed in the August 8 Democratic primary and filing deadline June 2, structural incumbency advantages and historical 60-70% Democratic margins underpin the odds. Shifts could arise from a credible GOP recruit, Tokuda scandal, or national midterm wave, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong position in this Cook PVI D+12 to D+14 district, where she won 66.5% in 2024 against a Republican opponent. Recent union endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March bolster her reelection bid, alongside a fundraising edge—over $500,000 cash on hand versus under $50,000 for Republican primary entrant Brenton Awa as of late 2025. With Tokuda unopposed in the August 8 Democratic primary and filing deadline June 2, structural incumbency advantages and historical 60-70% Democratic margins underpin the odds. Shifts could arise from a credible GOP recruit, Tokuda scandal, or national midterm wave, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.

Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's strong position in this Cook PVI D+12 to D+14 district, where she won 66.5% in 2024 against a Republican opponent. Recent union endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March bolster her reelection bid, alongside a fundraising edge—over $500,000 cash on hand versus under $50,000 for Republican primary entrant Brenton Awa as of late 2025. With Tokuda unopposed in the August 8 Democratic primary and filing deadline June 2, structural incumbency advantages and historical 60-70% Democratic margins underpin the odds. Shifts could arise from a credible GOP recruit, Tokuda scandal, or national midterm wave, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Partido Demócrata" con 91%, seguido de "Partido Republicano" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 91¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 28, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es "Partido Demócrata" con 91%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Republicano" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "HI-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.