Market icon
Politics·Primaries

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Joe Mitchell 95.2%

Charlie McClintock 2.9%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Joe Mitchell 95.2%

Charlie McClintock 2.9%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Joe Mitchell

$0 Vol.

95%

Charlie McClintock

$0 Vol.

3%

Shannon Lundgren

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Mitchell commands 95% trader consensus in the IA-02 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising edge, exceeding $1 million raised, alongside key endorsements from former President Trump and local business groups like the NFIB, which solidified his frontrunner status after last week's endorsement announcements. Recent internal GOP polls show him leading by over 50 points, with minimal challengers Charlie McClintock and Shannon Lundgren hampered by low name recognition and scant resources in this open-seat race following the incumbent's retirement decision. The June 4 primary looms with early voting underway, but scenarios like a late Trump endorsement reversal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout surge among underdog supporters could narrow the gap, though historical primary base rates favor such heavy favorites resolving as expected.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Mitchell commands 95% trader consensus in the IA-02 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising edge, exceeding $1 million raised, alongside key endorsements from former President Trump and local business groups like the NFIB, which solidified his frontrunner status after last week's endorsement announcements. Recent internal GOP polls show him leading by over 50 points, with minimal challengers Charlie McClintock and Shannon Lundgren hampered by low name recognition and scant resources in this open-seat race following the incumbent's retirement decision. The June 4 primary looms with early voting underway, but scenarios like a late Trump endorsement reversal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout surge among underdog supporters could narrow the gap, though historical primary base rates favor such heavy favorites resolving as expected.

Joe Mitchell commands 95% trader consensus in the IA-02 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising edge, exceeding $1 million raised, alongside key endorsements from former President Trump and local business groups like the NFIB, which solidified his frontrunner status after last week's endorsement announcements. Recent internal GOP polls show him leading by over 50 points, with minimal challengers Charlie McClintock and Shannon Lundgren hampered by low name recognition and scant resources in this open-seat race following the incumbent's retirement decision. The June 4 primary looms with early voting underway, but scenarios like a late Trump endorsement reversal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout surge among underdog supporters could narrow the gap, though historical primary base rates favor such heavy favorites resolving as expected.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Mitchell" at 95%, followed by "Charlie McClintock" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Joe Mitchell" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Charlie McClintock" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.