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Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 73%

New People (NL) 19.9%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.8%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%

Polymarket

$4,627,174 Vol.

United Russia (ER) 73%

New People (NL) 19.9%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.8%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%

Polymarket

$4,627,174 Vol.

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United Russia (ER)

$1,298,290 Vol.

73%

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New People (NL)

$401,204 Vol.

20%

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Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$2,045,294 Vol.

6%

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Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$260,454 Vol.

1%

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A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$230,468 Vol.

<1%

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Rodina

$199,077 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Civic Platform (GP)

$192,386 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, with 72.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts and projected overall majority of around 228 seats per polling models. Late March VCIOM and FOM surveys show United Russia leading proportional list voting intentions at 30-41%, though softening amid economic pressures, Ministry of Defense corruption scandals, and Telegram restrictions, while New People surges to second at 10-14%—its highest yet—for the first time overtaking LDPR (10-13%) and CPRF (9-13%). A Just Russia, Rodina, and Civic Platform trail far behind at under 5%, reflecting limited appeal in this managed electoral system with only pre-approved parties competing. Upcoming three-day voting and expanded electronic options could further solidify Kremlin-aligned outcomes.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,627,174
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors United Russia to claim the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, with 72.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts and projected overall majority of around 228 seats per polling models. Late March VCIOM and FOM surveys show United Russia leading proportional list voting intentions at 30-41%, though softening amid economic pressures, Ministry of Defense corruption scandals, and Telegram restrictions, while New People surges to second at 10-14%—its highest yet—for the first time overtaking LDPR (10-13%) and CPRF (9-13%). A Just Russia, Rodina, and Civic Platform trail far behind at under 5%, reflecting limited appeal in this managed electoral system with only pre-approved parties competing. Upcoming three-day voting and expanded electronic options could further solidify Kremlin-aligned outcomes.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,627,174
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "United Russia (ER)" at 73%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" has generated $4.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is "United Russia (ER)" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.