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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$472,288,308 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$472,288,308 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,162,463 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,735,141 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,316,141 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,416,768 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,985,474 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,508,444 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,354,633 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,317,192 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,453,400 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,031,785 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,518 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,823,022 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,505,817 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,618,768 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,769,239 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,008,928 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,104,215 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,272,058 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,691,254 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,366,087 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,976,740 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,570,029 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,384,591 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,035,994 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,651,488 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,310,022 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,434,254 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,779,780 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,179,061 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,136,340 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,973,449 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,306,557 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,057,429 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,945,693 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,097,064 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,586,962 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, driven by a fresh poll released yesterday showing Vance commanding over 50% support among Republicans for their nomination—his strongest lead yet as Trump's heir apparent. Newsom's near-parity stems from his dominance in Democratic nominee markets at 24% and recent memoir release signaling presidential ambitions, amid Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer. The race remains tightly contested due to the early stage, with no primaries underway and uncertainty over Trump administration performance ahead of pivotal 2026 midterms, which could boost incumbency advantages or trigger backlash; strong midterm showings, endorsements, or scandals could create separation among the fragmented field including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, driven by a fresh poll released yesterday showing Vance commanding over 50% support among Republicans for their nomination—his strongest lead yet as Trump's heir apparent. Newsom's near-parity stems from his dominance in Democratic nominee markets at 24% and recent memoir release signaling presidential ambitions, amid Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer. The race remains tightly contested due to the early stage, with no primaries underway and uncertainty over Trump administration performance ahead of pivotal 2026 midterms, which could boost incumbency advantages or trigger backlash; strong midterm showings, endorsements, or scandals could create separation among the fragmented field including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, driven by a fresh poll released yesterday showing Vance commanding over 50% support among Republicans for their nomination—his strongest lead yet as Trump's heir apparent. Newsom's near-parity stems from his dominance in Democratic nominee markets at 24% and recent memoir release signaling presidential ambitions, amid Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer. The race remains tightly contested due to the early stage, with no primaries underway and uncertainty over Trump administration performance ahead of pivotal 2026 midterms, which could boost incumbency advantages or trigger backlash; strong midterm showings, endorsements, or scandals could create separation among the fragmented field including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, driven by a fresh poll released yesterday showing Vance commanding over 50% support among Republicans for their nomination—his strongest lead yet as Trump's heir apparent. Newsom's near-parity stems from his dominance in Democratic nominee markets at 24% and recent memoir release signaling presidential ambitions, amid Democratic searches for a post-2024 standard-bearer. The race remains tightly contested due to the early stage, with no primaries underway and uncertainty over Trump administration performance ahead of pivotal 2026 midterms, which could boost incumbency advantages or trigger backlash; strong midterm showings, endorsements, or scandals could create separation among the fragmented field including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $472.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.