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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.7%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$935,960,622 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.1%

Jon Ossoff 5.7%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$935,960,622 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,539,517 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,128,280 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,836,384 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,660,974 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,469,513 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,869,742 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,116,909 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,838,894 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,571,147 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,663,083 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,979,873 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,553,314 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,484,949 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,211,259 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,153,821 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,384,153 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,232,803 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,165,849 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,134,805 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,796,002 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,672,671 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,698,061 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,920,361 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,256,763 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,057,419 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,981,420 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,364,773 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,395,541 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,652,908 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,175,969 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,838,494 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,303,772 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,525,275 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,180,925 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,357,677 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,651,181 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,457,113 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,978,056 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,391,976 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,406,583 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,367,807 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,479,595 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,649,676 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,414,875 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home-state primary and consistent national polling surges reflecting his national fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million and high-profile anti-Trump positioning. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% with strong progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state incumbency advantages. The wide-open field lacks consolidation amid post-2024 recalibration, with 2026 midterm outcomes for governors like Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andy Beshear, alongside fundraising tallies and party endorsements, poised as key catalysts to shift probabilities before primaries begin in 2028.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home-state primary and consistent national polling surges reflecting his national fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million and high-profile anti-Trump positioning. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% with strong progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state incumbency advantages. The wide-open field lacks consolidation amid post-2024 recalibration, with 2026 midterm outcomes for governors like Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andy Beshear, alongside fundraising tallies and party endorsements, poised as key catalysts to shift probabilities before primaries begin in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home-state primary and consistent national polling surges reflecting his national fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million and high-profile anti-Trump positioning. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% with strong progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state incumbency advantages. The wide-open field lacks consolidation amid post-2024 recalibration, with 2026 midterm outcomes for governors like Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andy Beshear, alongside fundraising tallies and party endorsements, poised as key catalysts to shift probabilities before primaries begin in 2028.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by a March 12 Politico poll showing him ahead of Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home-state primary and consistent national polling surges reflecting his national fundraising war chest exceeding $25 million and high-profile anti-Trump positioning. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% with strong progressive grassroots appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state incumbency advantages. The wide-open field lacks consolidation amid post-2024 recalibration, with 2026 midterm outcomes for governors like Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andy Beshear, alongside fundraising tallies and party endorsements, poised as key catalysts to shift probabilities before primaries begin in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $936 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.