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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 9%

David Lisnard 7.8%

Polymarket

$29,963,103 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 9%

David Lisnard 7.8%

Polymarket

$29,963,103 Vol.

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Édouard Philippe

$438,196 Vol.

28%

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Jordan Bardella

$641,844 Vol.

20%

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Marine Le Pen

$330,626 Vol.

9%

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David Lisnard

$748,290 Vol.

8%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$244,287 Vol.

7%

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Dominique de Villepin

$854,065 Vol.

5%

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François Hollande

$585,786 Vol.

3%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$493,764 Vol.

3%

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Sarah Knafo

$988,971 Vol.

3%

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Bruno Retailleau

$928,930 Vol.

2%

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Gabriel Attal

$861,940 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$335,793 Vol.

1%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$637,478 Vol.

1%

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Jean Castex

$472,729 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$324,514 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$355,162 Vol.

1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,835,809 Vol.

1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,323,106 Vol.

1%

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Clémence Guetté

$1,636,157 Vol.

1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$375,151 Vol.

1%

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François Asselineau

$1,683,417 Vol.

1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$1,556,072 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$285,783 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$412,086 Vol.

1%

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François Bayrou

$1,583,587 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$1,074,844 Vol.

<1%

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Manuel Bompard

$981,174 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$849,446 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$1,002,120 Vol.

<1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$333,245 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$1,031,412 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,232,131 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$736,176 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$960,892 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$1,098,612 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$738,316 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent Elabe polling from late March 2026, following municipal elections where Édouard Philippe secured reelection as Le Havre mayor amid National Rally gains in cities like Nice, positions Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round scenarios at 35-38% but trailing Philippe 48.5-51.5% in a projected runoff. This trader consensus—reflected in Philippe's leading 27.5% implied probability over Bardella's 19.5%—stems from Philippe's appeal as a centrist Horizons figure capable of uniting against far-right advance, while a fragmented left and undecided center-right parties like Les Républicains (primary April 18) prevent separation. Escalating immigration debates or Marine Le Pen's appeal outcome could shift dynamics before April 2027 voting.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$29,963,103
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent Elabe polling from late March 2026, following municipal elections where Édouard Philippe secured reelection as Le Havre mayor amid National Rally gains in cities like Nice, positions Jordan Bardella ahead in first-round scenarios at 35-38% but trailing Philippe 48.5-51.5% in a projected runoff. This trader consensus—reflected in Philippe's leading 27.5% implied probability over Bardella's 19.5%—stems from Philippe's appeal as a centrist Horizons figure capable of uniting against far-right advance, while a fragmented left and undecided center-right parties like Les Républicains (primary April 18) prevent separation. Escalating immigration debates or Marine Le Pen's appeal outcome could shift dynamics before April 2027 voting.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$29,963,103
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $30 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.