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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$473,318,422 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$473,318,422 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,194,193 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,760,176 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,337,860 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,431,737 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,014,474 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,530,737 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,383,530 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,318,759 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,483,335 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,052,795 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,582 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,861,627 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,520,404 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,645,488 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,774,809 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,032,594 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,131,312 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,306,645 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,714,852 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,394,665 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,008,697 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,597,835 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,412,704 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,062,814 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,680,165 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,335,285 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,471,017 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,811,688 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,220,695 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,172,158 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,339,742 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,006,034 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,088,347 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,995,375 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,151,009 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,649,034 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.1% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential election winner, capturing an open Republican field amid President Trump's term limits and a fragmented Democratic post-2024 landscape. Vance's edge stems from topping the recent CPAC straw poll for the second year and strong GOP internal polling (53% preference), but odds have dipped sharply in the past week amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy moves like Iran tensions and ambiguous signals on his intentions. Newsom has gained ground via his February memoir release and family discussions on a potential run, positioning him as the Democratic frontrunner ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape paths to victory through incumbency advantages, endorsements, or midterm swing state performances.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.1% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential election winner, capturing an open Republican field amid President Trump's term limits and a fragmented Democratic post-2024 landscape. Vance's edge stems from topping the recent CPAC straw poll for the second year and strong GOP internal polling (53% preference), but odds have dipped sharply in the past week amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy moves like Iran tensions and ambiguous signals on his intentions. Newsom has gained ground via his February memoir release and family discussions on a potential run, positioning him as the Democratic frontrunner ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape paths to victory through incumbency advantages, endorsements, or midterm swing state performances.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.1% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential election winner, capturing an open Republican field amid President Trump's term limits and a fragmented Democratic post-2024 landscape. Vance's edge stems from topping the recent CPAC straw poll for the second year and strong GOP internal polling (53% preference), but odds have dipped sharply in the past week amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy moves like Iran tensions and ambiguous signals on his intentions. Newsom has gained ground via his February memoir release and family discussions on a potential run, positioning him as the Democratic frontrunner ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape paths to victory through incumbency advantages, endorsements, or midterm swing state performances.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.1% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential election winner, capturing an open Republican field amid President Trump's term limits and a fragmented Democratic post-2024 landscape. Vance's edge stems from topping the recent CPAC straw poll for the second year and strong GOP internal polling (53% preference), but odds have dipped sharply in the past week amid scrutiny of administration foreign policy moves like Iran tensions and ambiguous signals on his intentions. Newsom has gained ground via his February memoir release and family discussions on a potential run, positioning him as the Democratic frontrunner ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape paths to victory through incumbency advantages, endorsements, or midterm swing state performances.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $473.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.