Recent Emerson College polling in New Hampshire places California Gov. Gavin Newsom tied for second among 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls, while LA Times/UC Berkeley and POLITICO surveys show him leading Kamala Harris by double digits in California, driving trader consensus to 24.3% implied probability in this fragmented post-2024 field. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.2% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff 5.7% via Georgia swing-state incumbency, contrasting Newsom's executive record and national anti-Trump profile. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm winners flipping the House, fundraising leaders, or early Iowa/New Hampshire polling surges, amid no declared candidates yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%
Jon Ossoff 5.7%
Kamala Harris 4.3%
$936,237,098 Vol.
$936,237,098 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Earn 4%
Gavin Newsom
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Kamala Harris
4%
Pete Buttigieg
4%
Josh Shapiro
4%
Jon Stewart
2%
Andy Beshear
2%
James Talarico
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
Mark Kelly
2%
Ruben Gallego
2%
Wes Moore
2%
Ro Khanna
2%
Gretchen Whitmer
1%
Michelle Obama
1%
Cory Booker
1%
Rahm Emanuel
1%
Stephen A. Smith
1%
Oprah Winfrey
1%
Mark Cuban
1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%
John Fetterman
1%
Liz Cheney
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
Chelsea Clinton
1%
Chris Murphy
1%
Roy Cooper
1%
Gina Raimondo
1%
George Clooney
1%
Kim Kardashian
1%
Jared Polis
1%
LeBron James
1%
MrBeast
1%
Hillary Clinton
1%
Barack Obama
1%
Tim Walz
1%
Andrew Yang
1%
Phil Murphy
1%
Hunter Biden
1%
Jasmine Crockett
1%
Raphael Warnock
1%
Bernie Sanders
1%
Beto O’Rourke
1%
Gavin Newsom 24.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%
Jon Ossoff 5.7%
Kamala Harris 4.3%
$936,237,098 Vol.
$936,237,098 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Earn 4%
Gavin Newsom
$16,559,036 Vol.
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$6,131,505 Vol.
8%
Jon Ossoff
$5,845,710 Vol.
6%
Kamala Harris
$8,663,968 Vol.
4%
Pete Buttigieg
$9,469,689 Vol.
4%
Josh Shapiro
$5,874,803 Vol.
4%
Jon Stewart
$9,850,232 Vol.
2%
Andy Beshear
$6,145,677 Vol.
2%
James Talarico
$3,571,399 Vol.
2%
J.B. Pritzker
$11,665,586 Vol.
2%
Mark Kelly
$10,980,311 Vol.
2%
Ruben Gallego
$3,553,358 Vol.
2%
Wes Moore
$13,487,004 Vol.
2%
Ro Khanna
$4,211,269 Vol.
2%
Gretchen Whitmer
$7,153,821 Vol.
1%
Michelle Obama
$21,385,466 Vol.
1%
Cory Booker
$21,169,563 Vol.
1%
Rahm Emanuel
$11,137,289 Vol.
1%
Stephen A. Smith
$13,798,139 Vol.
1%
Oprah Winfrey
$43,237,086 Vol.
1%
Mark Cuban
$17,683,950 Vol.
1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
$8,702,459 Vol.
1%
John Fetterman
$16,925,870 Vol.
1%
Liz Cheney
$32,058,665 Vol.
1%
Zohran Mamdani
$32,982,024 Vol.
1%
Chelsea Clinton
$44,367,791 Vol.
1%
Chris Murphy
$11,395,570 Vol.
1%
Roy Cooper
$24,658,453 Vol.
1%
Gina Raimondo
$27,301,729 Vol.
1%
George Clooney
$37,178,365 Vol.
1%
Kim Kardashian
$32,839,834 Vol.
1%
Jared Polis
$19,308,353 Vol.
1%
LeBron James
$38,525,286 Vol.
1%
MrBeast
$35,182,251 Vol.
1%
Hillary Clinton
$37,357,699 Vol.
1%
Barack Obama
$25,652,153 Vol.
1%
Tim Walz
$36,457,633 Vol.
1%
Andrew Yang
$41,993,955 Vol.
1%
Phil Murphy
$33,391,976 Vol.
1%
Hunter Biden
$31,407,917 Vol.
1%
Jasmine Crockett
$22,370,428 Vol.
1%
Raphael Warnock
$24,508,611 Vol.
1%
Bernie Sanders
$38,650,666 Vol.
1%
Beto O’Rourke
$31,447,130 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Emerson College polling in New Hampshire places California Gov. Gavin Newsom tied for second among 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls, while LA Times/UC Berkeley and POLITICO surveys show him leading Kamala Harris by double digits in California, driving trader consensus to 24.3% implied probability in this fragmented post-2024 field. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.2% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff 5.7% via Georgia swing-state incumbency, contrasting Newsom's executive record and national anti-Trump profile. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm winners flipping the House, fundraising leaders, or early Iowa/New Hampshire polling surges, amid no declared candidates yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
Volume
$936,237,098End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Emerson College polling in New Hampshire places California Gov. Gavin Newsom tied for second among 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls, while LA Times/UC Berkeley and POLITICO surveys show him leading Kamala Harris by double digits in California, driving trader consensus to 24.3% implied probability in this fragmented post-2024 field. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.2% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff 5.7% via Georgia swing-state incumbency, contrasting Newsom's executive record and national anti-Trump profile. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm winners flipping the House, fundraising leaders, or early Iowa/New Hampshire polling surges, amid no declared candidates yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$936,237,098End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent Emerson College polling in New Hampshire places California Gov. Gavin Newsom tied for second among 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls, while LA Times/UC Berkeley and POLITICO surveys show him leading Kamala Harris by double digits in California, driving trader consensus to 24.3% implied probability in this fragmented post-2024 field. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.2% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff 5.7% via Georgia swing-state incumbency, contrasting Newsom's executive record and national anti-Trump profile. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm winners flipping the House, fundraising leaders, or early Iowa/New Hampshire polling surges, amid no declared candidates yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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