Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.6%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$936,531,497 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.6%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$936,531,497 Vol.

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$16,568,284 Vol.

24%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,132,907 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$5,846,561 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$8,670,637 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$9,476,234 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,875,553 Vol.

4%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,609,129 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Jon Stewart

$9,856,331 Vol.

2%

Market icon

J.B. Pritzker

$11,666,744 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$6,152,334 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Mark Kelly

$10,988,118 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ruben Gallego

$3,553,358 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$13,487,004 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$4,211,503 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,154,030 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$21,396,713 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Cory Booker

$21,202,795 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rahm Emanuel

$11,141,451 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen A. Smith

$13,806,651 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Oprah Winfrey

$43,242,316 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mark Cuban

$17,693,731 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,719,324 Vol.

1%

Market icon

John Fetterman

$16,944,156 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Liz Cheney

$32,058,776 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$32,982,465 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Chelsea Clinton

$44,381,568 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Chris Murphy

$11,395,724 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Roy Cooper

$24,667,794 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gina Raimondo

$27,314,678 Vol.

1%

Market icon

George Clooney

$37,189,928 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$32,842,227 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jared Polis

$19,317,907 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$38,525,490 Vol.

1%

Market icon

MrBeast

$35,185,546 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Hillary Clinton

$37,361,900 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Barack Obama

$25,659,285 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$36,464,567 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Andrew Yang

$41,997,248 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Phil Murphy

$33,393,717 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Hunter Biden

$31,413,950 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jasmine Crockett

$22,374,788 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Raphael Warnock

$24,511,733 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Bernie Sanders

$38,655,166 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Beto O’Rourke

$31,451,113 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national book tour stops in early primary states like New Hampshire and a March 15 SXSW appearance where he hinted at a White House bid contingent on midterm gains. A March 12 California poll showed him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home state, bolstering his fundraising and executive experience edge in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% benefits from February Munich conference visibility and progressive appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state success and youth. Recent national primary polls like JL Partners (March 18-20) show Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, highlighting market divergence from surveys. 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, and endorsements could consolidate support amid this wide-open primary race.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national book tour stops in early primary states like New Hampshire and a March 15 SXSW appearance where he hinted at a White House bid contingent on midterm gains. A March 12 California poll showed him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home state, bolstering his fundraising and executive experience edge in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% benefits from February Munich conference visibility and progressive appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state success and youth. Recent national primary polls like JL Partners (March 18-20) show Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, highlighting market divergence from surveys. 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, and endorsements could consolidate support amid this wide-open primary race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national book tour stops in early primary states like New Hampshire and a March 15 SXSW appearance where he hinted at a White House bid contingent on midterm gains. A March 12 California poll showed him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home state, bolstering his fundraising and executive experience edge in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% benefits from February Munich conference visibility and progressive appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state success and youth. Recent national primary polls like JL Partners (March 18-20) show Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, highlighting market divergence from surveys. 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, and endorsements could consolidate support amid this wide-open primary race.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his recent national book tour stops in early primary states like New Hampshire and a March 15 SXSW appearance where he hinted at a White House bid contingent on midterm gains. A March 12 California poll showed him leading Kamala Harris by 14 points in their home state, bolstering his fundraising and executive experience edge in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% benefits from February Munich conference visibility and progressive appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects Georgia swing-state success and youth. Recent national primary polls like JL Partners (March 18-20) show Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, highlighting market divergence from surveys. 2026 midterms, fundraising tallies, and endorsements could consolidate support amid this wide-open primary race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $936.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.