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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$473,096,174 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$473,096,174 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,188,036 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,753,755 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,334,567 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,429,807 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,009,159 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,525,332 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,377,787 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,318,584 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,472,153 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,048,164 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,537 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,856,720 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,520,404 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,639,382 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,773,809 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,027,212 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,126,103 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,301,508 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,711,104 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,388,872 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,997,592 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,592,945 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,406,413 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,057,463 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,675,532 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,329,735 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,464,962 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,803,343 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,214,220 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,164,948 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,995,171 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,332,266 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,082,768 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,979,611 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,140,766 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,635,139 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his top finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the Republican nomination, reflecting his incumbency advantage and alignment with President Trump's base amid ongoing Iran negotiations. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely as the implied Democratic frontrunner per related nominee markets, bolstered by his national profile clashing with Trump administration policies on issues like fraud task forces and foreign entanglements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds have climbed on speculation of his diplomatic handling of Iran and Venezuela, fueled by reports of Trump privately polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With 2026 midterms eight months away, outcomes in swing states and party primaries could widen gaps, as historical base rates favor vice presidents but hinge on midterm momentum and scandal risks.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his top finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the Republican nomination, reflecting his incumbency advantage and alignment with President Trump's base amid ongoing Iran negotiations. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely as the implied Democratic frontrunner per related nominee markets, bolstered by his national profile clashing with Trump administration policies on issues like fraud task forces and foreign entanglements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds have climbed on speculation of his diplomatic handling of Iran and Venezuela, fueled by reports of Trump privately polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With 2026 midterms eight months away, outcomes in swing states and party primaries could widen gaps, as historical base rates favor vice presidents but hinge on midterm momentum and scandal risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his top finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the Republican nomination, reflecting his incumbency advantage and alignment with President Trump's base amid ongoing Iran negotiations. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely as the implied Democratic frontrunner per related nominee markets, bolstered by his national profile clashing with Trump administration policies on issues like fraud task forces and foreign entanglements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds have climbed on speculation of his diplomatic handling of Iran and Venezuela, fueled by reports of Trump privately polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With 2026 midterms eight months away, outcomes in swing states and party primaries could widen gaps, as historical base rates favor vice presidents but hinge on midterm momentum and scandal risks.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his top finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the Republican nomination, reflecting his incumbency advantage and alignment with President Trump's base amid ongoing Iran negotiations. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely as the implied Democratic frontrunner per related nominee markets, bolstered by his national profile clashing with Trump administration policies on issues like fraud task forces and foreign entanglements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds have climbed on speculation of his diplomatic handling of Iran and Venezuela, fueled by reports of Trump privately polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With 2026 midterms eight months away, outcomes in swing states and party primaries could widen gaps, as historical base rates favor vice presidents but hinge on midterm momentum and scandal risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $473.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.