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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$473,451,486 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$473,451,486 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,198,348 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,762,912 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,340,284 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,431,805 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,017,202 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,535,018 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,386,377 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,318,822 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,487,758 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,056,862 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,657 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,864,923 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,524,115 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,647,611 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,774,883 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,036,706 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,134,538 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,716,425 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,398,574 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,311,576 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,012,865 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,603,600 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,417,266 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,066,055 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,682,918 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,336,915 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,475,210 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,816,571 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,224,783 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,176,148 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,011,099 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,343,531 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,094,665 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,999,201 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,158,467 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,658,852 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom command closely matched trader consensus at around 18% and 17% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential winner, with over $470 million in volume underscoring intense early speculation. Vance's edge as Republican heir apparent has narrowed amid recent Middle East escalations involving Iran, which polls like YouGov show hurting GOP favorability and enabling Newsom's gains from leading Emerson College Democratic primary surveys. Marco Rubio lingers third at 10% on Trump advisor buzz. This tight contest reflects open primary fields, Trump's term limits, and uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state outcomes and turnout could solidify frontrunners or elevate challengers like AOC or DeSantis.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom command closely matched trader consensus at around 18% and 17% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential winner, with over $470 million in volume underscoring intense early speculation. Vance's edge as Republican heir apparent has narrowed amid recent Middle East escalations involving Iran, which polls like YouGov show hurting GOP favorability and enabling Newsom's gains from leading Emerson College Democratic primary surveys. Marco Rubio lingers third at 10% on Trump advisor buzz. This tight contest reflects open primary fields, Trump's term limits, and uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state outcomes and turnout could solidify frontrunners or elevate challengers like AOC or DeSantis.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom command closely matched trader consensus at around 18% and 17% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential winner, with over $470 million in volume underscoring intense early speculation. Vance's edge as Republican heir apparent has narrowed amid recent Middle East escalations involving Iran, which polls like YouGov show hurting GOP favorability and enabling Newsom's gains from leading Emerson College Democratic primary surveys. Marco Rubio lingers third at 10% on Trump advisor buzz. This tight contest reflects open primary fields, Trump's term limits, and uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state outcomes and turnout could solidify frontrunners or elevate challengers like AOC or DeSantis.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom command closely matched trader consensus at around 18% and 17% implied probabilities for the 2028 presidential winner, with over $470 million in volume underscoring intense early speculation. Vance's edge as Republican heir apparent has narrowed amid recent Middle East escalations involving Iran, which polls like YouGov show hurting GOP favorability and enabling Newsom's gains from leading Emerson College Democratic primary surveys. Marco Rubio lingers third at 10% on Trump advisor buzz. This tight contest reflects open primary fields, Trump's term limits, and uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, where swing state outcomes and turnout could solidify frontrunners or elevate challengers like AOC or DeSantis.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $473.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.