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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$472,773,009 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$472,773,009 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,177,363 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,745,829 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,328,990 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,425,567 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$6,519,618 Vol.

3%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,999,575 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,369,837 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,318,263 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,466,129 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,039,363 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,537 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,847,756 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,520,377 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,635,431 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,771,802 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,019,672 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,115,009 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,290,292 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,703,494 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,379,867 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,988,046 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,585,104 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,398,463 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,052,105 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,666,617 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,325,346 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,453,227 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,790,978 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,196,995 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,153,306 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,984,104 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,321,047 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,074,509 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,968,950 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,117,080 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,616,366 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on a tight early race shaped by recent geopolitical tensions and Democratic positioning. Vance's probabilities have declined amid the Trump administration's escalating Iran conflict and reported erratic statements, raising doubts about GOP viability despite his incumbency advantage as vice president. Newsom has narrowed the gap following his February memoir release and family deliberations on a potential run, bolstering his status as the Democratic frontrunner. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% after an early surge from orchestrating Venezuela's leadership change, but mid-2026 midterm results, foreign policy outcomes, and primary endorsements could create separation among these closely contested contenders.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on a tight early race shaped by recent geopolitical tensions and Democratic positioning. Vance's probabilities have declined amid the Trump administration's escalating Iran conflict and reported erratic statements, raising doubts about GOP viability despite his incumbency advantage as vice president. Newsom has narrowed the gap following his February memoir release and family deliberations on a potential run, bolstering his status as the Democratic frontrunner. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% after an early surge from orchestrating Venezuela's leadership change, but mid-2026 midterm results, foreign policy outcomes, and primary endorsements could create separation among these closely contested contenders.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on a tight early race shaped by recent geopolitical tensions and Democratic positioning. Vance's probabilities have declined amid the Trump administration's escalating Iran conflict and reported erratic statements, raising doubts about GOP viability despite his incumbency advantage as vice president. Newsom has narrowed the gap following his February memoir release and family deliberations on a potential run, bolstering his status as the Democratic frontrunner. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% after an early surge from orchestrating Venezuela's leadership change, but mid-2026 midterm results, foreign policy outcomes, and primary endorsements could create separation among these closely contested contenders.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, reflecting trader consensus on a tight early race shaped by recent geopolitical tensions and Democratic positioning. Vance's probabilities have declined amid the Trump administration's escalating Iran conflict and reported erratic statements, raising doubts about GOP viability despite his incumbency advantage as vice president. Newsom has narrowed the gap following his February memoir release and family deliberations on a potential run, bolstering his status as the Democratic frontrunner. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% after an early surge from orchestrating Venezuela's leadership change, but mid-2026 midterm results, foreign policy outcomes, and primary endorsements could create separation among these closely contested contenders.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $472.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.