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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 29%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 11%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 7%

Polymarket

$27,840,882 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 29%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 11%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 7%

Polymarket

$27,840,882 Vol.

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Édouard Philippe

$430,806 Vol.

29%

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Jordan Bardella

$634,443 Vol.

20%

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Marine Le Pen

$324,085 Vol.

11%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$239,614 Vol.

7%

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Dominique de Villepin

$838,055 Vol.

5%

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David Lisnard

$714,882 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$479,968 Vol.

4%

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François Hollande

$576,382 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$971,569 Vol.

3%

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Bruno Retailleau

$914,386 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$855,472 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$330,030 Vol.

1%

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Jean Castex

$466,720 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$348,778 Vol.

1%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$613,316 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$281,258 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$304,503 Vol.

1%

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François Asselineau

$1,552,423 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$1,411,181 Vol.

<1%

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Marine Tondelier

$407,833 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,676,102 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$1,416,898 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,198,187 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$1,484,330 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,151,304 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$716,174 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$891,205 Vol.

<1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$330,097 Vol.

<1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$351,171 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$872,236 Vol.

<1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$977,566 Vol.

<1%

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Manuel Bompard

$877,872 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$637,739 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$836,210 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$701,344 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$1,027,214 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls, including Elabe and Odoxa from late March 2026, show Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 34-38% amid National Rally's municipal election gains, but Édouard Philippe closing the gap at 21-26% and edging him out 51.5-52% to 48% in runoffs, bolstered by his Le Havre mayoral reelection. Trader sentiment reflects this dynamic, pricing Philippe as the frontrunner due to his broader second-round appeal in France's two-round system, while a fragmented left (Mélenchon at 12-13%) and competing right-wing figures like Marine Le Pen keep the field wide open. Separation could arise from RN leadership decisions, left-wing consolidation behind a single candidate, Le Pen's summer embezzlement appeal verdict, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$27,840,882
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls, including Elabe and Odoxa from late March 2026, show Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 34-38% amid National Rally's municipal election gains, but Édouard Philippe closing the gap at 21-26% and edging him out 51.5-52% to 48% in runoffs, bolstered by his Le Havre mayoral reelection. Trader sentiment reflects this dynamic, pricing Philippe as the frontrunner due to his broader second-round appeal in France's two-round system, while a fragmented left (Mélenchon at 12-13%) and competing right-wing figures like Marine Le Pen keep the field wide open. Separation could arise from RN leadership decisions, left-wing consolidation behind a single candidate, Le Pen's summer embezzlement appeal verdict, or shifts in economic sentiment ahead of the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$27,840,882
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $27.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.