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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$474,948,222 Vol.

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$474,948,222 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,247,792 Vol.

17%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,803,433 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,376,059 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,433,970 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,047,991 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,564,315 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,416,967 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,322,144 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,519,796 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,147,295 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,443,192 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,902,641 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,546,054 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,778,097 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,669,278 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,070,422 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,175,176 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,743,246 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,342,361 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,431,514 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,044,193 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,643,788 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,448,567 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,100,754 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,721,417 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,372,962 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,513,239 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,857,352 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,262,113 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,226,067 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,447,977 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,046,664 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,250,661 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,039,204 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,239,073 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,766,725 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant win in the March 28-29 CPAC straw poll, capturing 53% of GOP activist support amid a tightening race with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%, boosted by escalating Iran tensions highlighting Rubio's foreign policy role. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely, leading early Democratic polls like Emerson's March survey and a New Hampshire primary matchup, positioning him as the party's top contender post-2024. With probabilities under 20% across the fragmented field, the market reflects high uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads in swing states and Electoral College battlegrounds.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant win in the March 28-29 CPAC straw poll, capturing 53% of GOP activist support amid a tightening race with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%, boosted by escalating Iran tensions highlighting Rubio's foreign policy role. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely, leading early Democratic polls like Emerson's March survey and a New Hampshire primary matchup, positioning him as the party's top contender post-2024. With probabilities under 20% across the fragmented field, the market reflects high uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads in swing states and Electoral College battlegrounds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant win in the March 28-29 CPAC straw poll, capturing 53% of GOP activist support amid a tightening race with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%, boosted by escalating Iran tensions highlighting Rubio's foreign policy role. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely, leading early Democratic polls like Emerson's March survey and a New Hampshire primary matchup, positioning him as the party's top contender post-2024. With probabilities under 20% across the fragmented field, the market reflects high uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads in swing states and Electoral College battlegrounds.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant win in the March 28-29 CPAC straw poll, capturing 53% of GOP activist support amid a tightening race with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%, boosted by escalating Iran tensions highlighting Rubio's foreign policy role. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely, leading early Democratic polls like Emerson's March survey and a New Hampshire primary matchup, positioning him as the party's top contender post-2024. With probabilities under 20% across the fragmented field, the market reflects high uncertainty ahead of 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, and potential scandals or endorsements that could widen leads in swing states and Electoral College battlegrounds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 17%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $474.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.