Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,688,603 Vol.

JD Vance 17.4%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$471,688,603 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,140,719 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$6,722,341 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,306,273 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,411,501 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$2,958,711 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,493,112 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,343,774 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,316,108 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,441,116 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,402 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$15,011,513 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$5,803,641 Vol.

2%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$9,489,723 Vol.

1%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,755,030 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,609,790 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$3,998,282 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,079,027 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,225,299 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,671,549 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,356,343 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$21,964,274 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,562,790 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,370,082 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$21,021,029 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$5,641,246 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,298,202 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,412,521 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$19,766,201 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$28,162,362 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,832 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,930,905 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$16,286,874 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$5,039,850 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$1,924,094 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$29,073,553 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$42,541,778 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus lead at 17.4% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, mirroring his dominance in Republican nominee markets (37%) over Marco Rubio (24%) and her edge among Democrats (24%). Recent CPAC straw poll victory solidified Vance's GOP frontrunner status among conservatives, but administration escalations in the Iran conflict have drawn Republican criticism, eroding his support in some polls and tightening the general election odds. Newsom's national visibility persists despite a sharp drop in New Hampshire Democratic primary polling. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms, economic performance, and foreign policy outcomes will likely create separation in this closely contested, wide-open field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus lead at 17.4% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, mirroring his dominance in Republican nominee markets (37%) over Marco Rubio (24%) and her edge among Democrats (24%). Recent CPAC straw poll victory solidified Vance's GOP frontrunner status among conservatives, but administration escalations in the Iran conflict have drawn Republican criticism, eroding his support in some polls and tightening the general election odds. Newsom's national visibility persists despite a sharp drop in New Hampshire Democratic primary polling. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms, economic performance, and foreign policy outcomes will likely create separation in this closely contested, wide-open field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus lead at 17.4% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, mirroring his dominance in Republican nominee markets (37%) over Marco Rubio (24%) and her edge among Democrats (24%). Recent CPAC straw poll victory solidified Vance's GOP frontrunner status among conservatives, but administration escalations in the Iran conflict have drawn Republican criticism, eroding his support in some polls and tightening the general election odds. Newsom's national visibility persists despite a sharp drop in New Hampshire Democratic primary polling. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms, economic performance, and foreign policy outcomes will likely create separation in this closely contested, wide-open field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus lead at 17.4% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, mirroring his dominance in Republican nominee markets (37%) over Marco Rubio (24%) and her edge among Democrats (24%). Recent CPAC straw poll victory solidified Vance's GOP frontrunner status among conservatives, but administration escalations in the Iran conflict have drawn Republican criticism, eroding his support in some polls and tightening the general election odds. Newsom's national visibility persists despite a sharp drop in New Hampshire Democratic primary polling. With primaries over two years away, 2026 midterms, economic performance, and foreign policy outcomes will likely create separation in this closely contested, wide-open field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 17%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.