Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ali Khamenei's death in early-March Israeli airstrikes, despite persistent unverified rumors of his injury or coma from subsequent bombings and no public appearances since. Iranian officials reiterated yesterday that he remains in full health, directing affairs amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict involving airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share has risen on his high-profile CPAC speeches today urging regime dismantling and transition leadership, amplified by prior 2025-2026 protests and war-induced unrest signaling potential collapse risks before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 45.8%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
No Head of State 5.8%
$5,393,507 Vol.
$5,393,507 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
46%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
No Head of State
6%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Nasir Hosseini
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 45.8%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
No Head of State 5.8%
$5,393,507 Vol.
$5,393,507 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
46%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
No Head of State
6%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Nasir Hosseini
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ali Khamenei's death in early-March Israeli airstrikes, despite persistent unverified rumors of his injury or coma from subsequent bombings and no public appearances since. Iranian officials reiterated yesterday that he remains in full health, directing affairs amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict involving airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share has risen on his high-profile CPAC speeches today urging regime dismantling and transition leadership, amplified by prior 2025-2026 protests and war-induced unrest signaling potential collapse risks before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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