Amid ongoing war with Israel and the US, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali's death—has made no verified public appearance since, fueling trader skepticism despite low baseline odds. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, insist he remains in good health inside Iran, attributing his absence to wartime security precautions, as echoed by a Russian envoy on March 31. Archival footage aired March 19, but no live visuals; recent written statements thank allies like Iraq. Escalating airstrikes and IRGC missile responses heighten risks, with no scheduled addresses announced amid de-escalation talks or regime stability pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
$854,002 Vol.
April 30
12%
May 31
23%
$854,002 Vol.
April 30
12%
May 31
23%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing war with Israel and the US, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali's death—has made no verified public appearance since, fueling trader skepticism despite low baseline odds. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, insist he remains in good health inside Iran, attributing his absence to wartime security precautions, as echoed by a Russian envoy on March 31. Archival footage aired March 19, but no live visuals; recent written statements thank allies like Iraq. Escalating airstrikes and IRGC missile responses heighten risks, with no scheduled addresses announced amid de-escalation talks or regime stability pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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