The US-Israel war with Iran, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. On April 2, Iran fired multiple missile salvos at Israel—the largest in recent days—following President Trump's national address claiming US strategic objectives, including degradation of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, are nearing completion and vowing intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks. Tehran rejected ceasefire overtures, warned of "more destructive" retaliation, and maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling global oil disruptions. Proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah add volatility, while 35 nations plan diplomatic talks on the strait; traders weigh Trump's timeline against persistent barrages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$11,853,438 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 15
8%
April 7
2%
April 30
28%
May 15
43%
June 30
67%
December 31
88%
$11,853,438 Vol.
March 31
$5,045,392 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$1,708,337 Vol.
8%
April 7
$858,872 Vol.
2%
April 30
$1,122,171 Vol.
28%
May 15
$1,558,182 Vol.
43%
June 30
$1,136,020 Vol.
67%
December 31
$428,955 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. On April 2, Iran fired multiple missile salvos at Israel—the largest in recent days—following President Trump's national address claiming US strategic objectives, including degradation of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, are nearing completion and vowing intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks. Tehran rejected ceasefire overtures, warned of "more destructive" retaliation, and maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling global oil disruptions. Proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah add volatility, while 35 nations plan diplomatic talks on the strait; traders weigh Trump's timeline against persistent barrages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$11,853,438End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. On April 2, Iran fired multiple missile salvos at Israel—the largest in recent days—following President Trump's national address claiming US strategic objectives, including degradation of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, are nearing completion and vowing intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks. Tehran rejected ceasefire overtures, warned of "more destructive" retaliation, and maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling global oil disruptions. Proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah add volatility, while 35 nations plan diplomatic talks on the strait; traders weigh Trump's timeline against persistent barrages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$11,853,438End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel war with Iran, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. On April 2, Iran fired multiple missile salvos at Israel—the largest in recent days—following President Trump's national address claiming US strategic objectives, including degradation of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, are nearing completion and vowing intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks. Tehran rejected ceasefire overtures, warned of "more destructive" retaliation, and maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, fueling global oil disruptions. Proxy escalations by Houthis and Hezbollah add volatility, while 35 nations plan diplomatic talks on the strait; traders weigh Trump's timeline against persistent barrages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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