The US-Israel conflict with Iran, entering day 34 on April 2, shows no signs of de-escalation after Iran's April 1 launch of five missile salvos—including a major 10-missile barrage—targeting Israel, prompting continued US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile sites, and naval assets. President Trump's vow to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks has driven oil price surges amid Iranian threats of "more destructive" retaliation against US bases and allies in the Gulf, where at least 50 deaths were reported. Failed ceasefire proposals, undermined by Israeli strikes derailing talks, underscore persistent military escalation and diplomatic stalemate, with traders eyeing Persian Gulf disruptions, potential regime pressures, or broader alliances as pivotal factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12,002,099 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 15
8%
April 7
1%
April 30
27%
May 15
43%
June 30
67%
December 31
88%
$12,002,099 Vol.
March 31
$5,137,817 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$1,716,333 Vol.
8%
April 7
$866,017 Vol.
1%
April 30
$1,147,137 Vol.
27%
May 15
$1,561,912 Vol.
43%
June 30
$1,139,070 Vol.
67%
December 31
$433,953 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel conflict with Iran, entering day 34 on April 2, shows no signs of de-escalation after Iran's April 1 launch of five missile salvos—including a major 10-missile barrage—targeting Israel, prompting continued US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile sites, and naval assets. President Trump's vow to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks has driven oil price surges amid Iranian threats of "more destructive" retaliation against US bases and allies in the Gulf, where at least 50 deaths were reported. Failed ceasefire proposals, undermined by Israeli strikes derailing talks, underscore persistent military escalation and diplomatic stalemate, with traders eyeing Persian Gulf disruptions, potential regime pressures, or broader alliances as pivotal factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volume
$12,002,099End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel conflict with Iran, entering day 34 on April 2, shows no signs of de-escalation after Iran's April 1 launch of five missile salvos—including a major 10-missile barrage—targeting Israel, prompting continued US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile sites, and naval assets. President Trump's vow to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks has driven oil price surges amid Iranian threats of "more destructive" retaliation against US bases and allies in the Gulf, where at least 50 deaths were reported. Failed ceasefire proposals, undermined by Israeli strikes derailing talks, underscore persistent military escalation and diplomatic stalemate, with traders eyeing Persian Gulf disruptions, potential regime pressures, or broader alliances as pivotal factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$12,002,099End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel conflict with Iran, entering day 34 on April 2, shows no signs of de-escalation after Iran's April 1 launch of five missile salvos—including a major 10-missile barrage—targeting Israel, prompting continued US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, missile sites, and naval assets. President Trump's vow to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks has driven oil price surges amid Iranian threats of "more destructive" retaliation against US bases and allies in the Gulf, where at least 50 deaths were reported. Failed ceasefire proposals, undermined by Israeli strikes derailing talks, underscore persistent military escalation and diplomatic stalemate, with traders eyeing Persian Gulf disruptions, potential regime pressures, or broader alliances as pivotal factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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