Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's February 2026 life sentence by the Seoul Central District Court for leading an insurrection tied to his short-lived 2024 martial law declaration has solidified trader consensus against his release before 2027, with "No" implying 92.3% probability. Despite an appeal filed shortly after sentencing, Yoon remains detained at the Seoul Detention Centre amid ongoing trials on additional charges, including a prior five-year term for abuse of power. Recent April developments, such as his wife Kim Keon-hee's courtroom testimony and supporter protests, highlight political divisions but show no judicial progress toward freedom. Only a successful high court reversal or presidential pardon under President Lee Jae-myung could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged incarceration for such convictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYoon out of custody before 2027?
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's February 2026 life sentence by the Seoul Central District Court for leading an insurrection tied to his short-lived 2024 martial law declaration has solidified trader consensus against his release before 2027, with "No" implying 92.3% probability. Despite an appeal filed shortly after sentencing, Yoon remains detained at the Seoul Detention Centre amid ongoing trials on additional charges, including a prior five-year term for abuse of power. Recent April developments, such as his wife Kim Keon-hee's courtroom testimony and supporter protests, highlight political divisions but show no judicial progress toward freedom. Only a successful high court reversal or presidential pardon under President Lee Jae-myung could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged incarceration for such convictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$6,498End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's February 2026 life sentence by the Seoul Central District Court for leading an insurrection tied to his short-lived 2024 martial law declaration has solidified trader consensus against his release before 2027, with "No" implying 92.3% probability. Despite an appeal filed shortly after sentencing, Yoon remains detained at the Seoul Detention Centre amid ongoing trials on additional charges, including a prior five-year term for abuse of power. Recent April developments, such as his wife Kim Keon-hee's courtroom testimony and supporter protests, highlight political divisions but show no judicial progress toward freedom. Only a successful high court reversal or presidential pardon under President Lee Jae-myung could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged incarceration for such convictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,498End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's February 2026 life sentence by the Seoul Central District Court for leading an insurrection tied to his short-lived 2024 martial law declaration has solidified trader consensus against his release before 2027, with "No" implying 92.3% probability. Despite an appeal filed shortly after sentencing, Yoon remains detained at the Seoul Detention Centre amid ongoing trials on additional charges, including a prior five-year term for abuse of power. Recent April developments, such as his wife Kim Keon-hee's courtroom testimony and supporter protests, highlight political divisions but show no judicial progress toward freedom. Only a successful high court reversal or presidential pardon under President Lee Jae-myung could shift odds, though historical patterns favor prolonged incarceration for such convictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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