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Politics·South Korea

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·South Korea

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol remains detained following a Seoul Central District Court arrest warrant on January 15 for insurrection charges stemming from his December 3 martial law declaration, with prosecutors securing indictment and multiple detention extensions through late January. The National Assembly's December 14 impeachment suspension awaits a Constitutional Court verdict by June 2025, but separate criminal proceedings—potentially involving life imprisonment—signal prolonged custody amid rejected bail appeals and strong prosecutorial case. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.8%, reflecting procedural timelines and historical gravity of such rebellion offenses, though late acquittal or health issues could shift outcomes before his 2027 term ends.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol remains detained following a Seoul Central District Court arrest warrant on January 15 for insurrection charges stemming from his December 3 martial law declaration, with prosecutors securing indictment and multiple detention extensions through late January. The National Assembly's December 14 impeachment suspension awaits a Constitutional Court verdict by June 2025, but separate criminal proceedings—potentially involving life imprisonment—signal prolonged custody amid rejected bail appeals and strong prosecutorial case. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.8%, reflecting procedural timelines and historical gravity of such rebellion offenses, though late acquittal or health issues could shift outcomes before his 2027 term ends.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol remains detained following a Seoul Central District Court arrest warrant on January 15 for insurrection charges stemming from his December 3 martial law declaration, with prosecutors securing indictment and multiple detention extensions through late January. The National Assembly's December 14 impeachment suspension awaits a Constitutional Court verdict by June 2025, but separate criminal proceedings—potentially involving life imprisonment—signal prolonged custody amid rejected bail appeals and strong prosecutorial case. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.8%, reflecting procedural timelines and historical gravity of such rebellion offenses, though late acquittal or health issues could shift outcomes before his 2027 term ends.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol remains detained following a Seoul Central District Court arrest warrant on January 15 for insurrection charges stemming from his December 3 martial law declaration, with prosecutors securing indictment and multiple detention extensions through late January. The National Assembly's December 14 impeachment suspension awaits a Constitutional Court verdict by June 2025, but separate criminal proceedings—potentially involving life imprisonment—signal prolonged custody amid rejected bail appeals and strong prosecutorial case. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.8%, reflecting procedural timelines and historical gravity of such rebellion offenses, though late acquittal or health issues could shift outcomes before his 2027 term ends.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Yoon out of custody before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Yoon out of custody before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Yoon out of custody before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Yoon out of custody before 2027?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Yoon out of custody before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.