Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election, an open seat due to term limits barring incumbent Republican Mark Gordon from a third consecutive term, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at a commanding 95% implied probability to win on November 3. This reflects the state's entrenched Republican dominance—governors have won by wide margins averaging over 67% in recent cycles, with no Democratic victor since 2010—and a lopsided field featuring established GOP primary contenders like Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (recently endorsed by Rep. Harriet Hageman on March 25), former House Speaker Eric Barlow, and Brent Bien against lone Democratic hopeful Gabriel Green. The August 18 primary looms as the key test for GOP unity; realistic challenges include a scandal-plagued nominee or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge in this safe Republican stronghold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$1,501 Vol.
95%
Democrat
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election, an open seat due to term limits barring incumbent Republican Mark Gordon from a third consecutive term, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at a commanding 95% implied probability to win on November 3. This reflects the state's entrenched Republican dominance—governors have won by wide margins averaging over 67% in recent cycles, with no Democratic victor since 2010—and a lopsided field featuring established GOP primary contenders like Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (recently endorsed by Rep. Harriet Hageman on March 25), former House Speaker Eric Barlow, and Brent Bien against lone Democratic hopeful Gabriel Green. The August 18 primary looms as the key test for GOP unity; realistic challenges include a scandal-plagued nominee or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge in this safe Republican stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,501End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election, an open seat due to term limits barring incumbent Republican Mark Gordon from a third consecutive term, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at a commanding 95% implied probability to win on November 3. This reflects the state's entrenched Republican dominance—governors have won by wide margins averaging over 67% in recent cycles, with no Democratic victor since 2010—and a lopsided field featuring established GOP primary contenders like Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (recently endorsed by Rep. Harriet Hageman on March 25), former House Speaker Eric Barlow, and Brent Bien against lone Democratic hopeful Gabriel Green. The August 18 primary looms as the key test for GOP unity; realistic challenges include a scandal-plagued nominee or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge in this safe Republican stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$1,501End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's 2026 gubernatorial election, an open seat due to term limits barring incumbent Republican Mark Gordon from a third consecutive term, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at a commanding 95% implied probability to win on November 3. This reflects the state's entrenched Republican dominance—governors have won by wide margins averaging over 67% in recent cycles, with no Democratic victor since 2010—and a lopsided field featuring established GOP primary contenders like Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (recently endorsed by Rep. Harriet Hageman on March 25), former House Speaker Eric Barlow, and Brent Bien against lone Democratic hopeful Gabriel Green. The August 18 primary looms as the key test for GOP unity; realistic challenges include a scandal-plagued nominee or unprecedented national Democratic turnout surge in this safe Republican stronghold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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